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Forecast

August 12, 2017am

August 12, 2017

Our new website launches this evening!  We anticipate the switch will be smooth, but in the event you experience error messages or other difficulties, we will be posting on the front page of our current website some steps you can take to make the switch more smoothly.  Should you continue to have issues, we encourage you to contact us by email at trudy@johnhibler.com or by phone at 573-776-3920. 

 

Summary: Central California continues to be sandwiched between upper level  high pressure over the Desert Southwest  and a weak trough of low pressure off the coast of the  Pacific Northwest.  Pressures are high enough to keep the marine layer at bay.  The latest report out of Fort Ord has the marine layer at 1,700 feet.

 

There is a possibly significant change in the pattern coming up, by the standards of August.  A low pressure system currently off the British Columbia coast will dig all the way southward into southern California Monday and Tuesday.  This will definitely lead to a cooling trend.  The main challenge will be to discern how much cooling will take place.  For now, it’s a good bet that low to mid 90s will prevail, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

The flow aloft will remain out of the west/southwest, maintaining clear skies.  By late next week, a hotter pattern will develop as high pressure aloft over the Desert Southwest shifts towards the coast.  This will result in triple digit temperatures again by next weekend with the possibility of a southeast flow developing.  This could move the monsoon into California with an increasing chance of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada by Friday.

 

Today is the first day this possible change has shown up on model runs, but it is one which has occurred several times already this summer.  It would not be a surprise for it to occur again.

 

Our new website launches this evening!  We anticipate the switch will be smooth, but in the event you experience error messages or other difficulties, we will be posting on the front page of our current website some steps you can take to make the switch more smoothly.  Should you continue to have issues, we encourage you to contact us by email at trudy@johnhibler.com or by phone at 573-776-3920. 

 

Forecast:  Clear skies through Friday night.  Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 99/62/99/61/95 Reedley 99/63/98/62/96 Dinuba 100/64/100/63/97
Porterville 101/64/100/64/97 Lindsay 100/63/100/62/97 Delano 101/66/100/64/97
Bakersfield 102/74/100/70/98 Arvin 103/71/102/70/99 Taft 100/77/100/73/98
Lamont 102/71/100/70/98 Pixley 100/65/100/64/96 Tulare 99/63/99/61/96
Woodlake 100/63/99/63/96 Hanford 102/63/100/62/96 Orosi 100/62/100/62/97

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

61/91

Wednesday

Mostly clear

60/93

Thursday

Mostly clear

66/99

Friday

Mostly clear

68/101

Saturday

Partly cloudy

67/102

 

Two Week Outlook: August 19 through August 25:  This model indicates a trough of low pressure will be off shore during the early part of the period.  It will then form another low over Nevada.  This poses little if any chance of precipitation, but it would maintain a westerly flow with a possibly deep marine layer which would allow temperatures to slide a bit below average.

 

August:  This model shows a significant trough of low pressure east of the Rockies and overall fairly strong high pressure dominating the western third of the U.S.  This should create above average temperatures for the month with a chance of the return of the monsoon from time to time.  Generally, temperatures will be above average with a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

 

August, September, October:  The trend towards above average temperatures shows up once again through at least August and September.  October is more iffy.  As far as precipitation is concerned, conditions will remain near average.  Remember, the real rainfall season doesn’t begin until November so no significant amounts of precipitation are seen at this time.

 

Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest through tonight at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings with generally light winds during the night and early morning hours.  Beginning Sunday, we may see some elevated wind conditions as a trough of low pressure digs southward along the coast.  This does not appear to be anything excessive in nature, but gusts to 20 to 25 MPH are possible Sunday through Tuesday, especially along the west side.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather for the foreseeable future.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Mid 40s to the lower 50s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 15%/80%  Bakersfield, 15%/50%

Actual Humidity August, 2017: Delano, 94%/23%, Porterville, 88%23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days August 10, 2017: Stratford 2.00, Parlier 1.39, Blackwell 2.09, Lindcove 1.70, Arvin 2.14, Orange Cove 1.89, Porterville 1.64, Delano 1.77, Madera Two 1.58. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 80, Lindcove 79, Arvin 83, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 83, Delano NA, Madera Two 83

 

Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 84.4. +5.2

Record Temperatures: 113/54. Average Temperatures: 98/65

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1340, +369 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since August 10, 2017,  Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.88 or +5.88, Month to Date: .00

Since August 10, 2017,  Bakersfield:  7.88, or 1.72 Month to Date: .00, Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:14 am  Sunset: 7:53 Hours of Daylight: 13:41

 

Yesterday’s Weather

: …Valley…

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  98 /  64 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  99 /  62 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 / 101 /  68 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 / 102 /  66 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 / 102 /  64 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 / 101 /  74 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 / 100 /  66 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1656 /  98 /  69 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 / 100 /  65 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  99 /  76 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  97 /  63 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                      Season        Last year      Average  Annual Average

STOCKTON                      0.00   21.78   158   16.69   121    13.76    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   16.93   132   15.61   122    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   16.03   131   14.66   120    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   14.18   121   12.96   110    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   17.20   152   14.29   126    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00   11.05   112    8.26    83     9.91    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.82   123    5.43    85     6.36     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    9.18   188    3.88    79     4.89     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   16.45   130   13.47   107    12.64    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   16.14   129    8.06    65    12.47    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   18.44   134    9.00    65    13.79    13.95

Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th

 

Next Report:  Monday, August 14