August 15, 2017
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Summary: Today will be the coolest day we have witnessed since early June. Temperatures at most locations will not reach the 90 degree mark. We find ourselves this morning between a trough of low pressure now covering the Great Basin down into Southern California and an upper high off the northern California coast. This is creating a cooler northwest flow aloft.
At the surface, satellite imagery this morning is very interesting. The fog and low clouds which typically cover the immediate coast this time of year have spread inland as far as the last mountain range separating the Coast Range from the San Joaquin Valley. Marine air is surging inland. I noted at last report, winds at Pacheco Pass were at 18 MPH, gusting to 35. A secondary low will move quickly through Wednesday, maintaining the well below average temperatures. By Thursday, the off shore high will begin to build inland for a significant warming trend. This trend will eventually push temperatures to near the century mark over the weekend.
Models have been varying lately on the behavior of the monsoon. This morning’s models continue to show a southwesterly flow aloft over the weekend. That would basically keep the monsoon in Arizona and Utah, leaving California basically cloud free.
By Monday and Tuesday of next week, a weaker trough of low pressure will be moving inland. This could move temperatures back into the mid 90s, but no big dip in temperatures like we’re experiencing now is expected.
Forecast: Clear skies through Friday. mostly clear skies will continue Friday night through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 85/57/89/63/97 | Reedley 87/58/91/62/97 | Dinuba 87/60/91/63/97 | |
| Porterville 88/58/92/64/98 | Lindsay 88/57/91/64/98 | Delano 88/61/92/65/97 | |
| Bakersfield 87/62/90/67/99 | Arvin 88/60/90/65/99 | Taft 87/65/91/67/99 | |
| Lamont 87/61/92/67/100 | Pixley 88/59/91/65/98 | Tulare 87/59/92/64/97 | |
| Woodlake 87/58/92/63/98 | Hanford 88/59/92/64/98 | Orosi 87/57/91/63/97 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 67/99 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 68/101 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 68/98 |
Monday
Mostly clear 65/97 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 63/95 |
Two Week Outlook: August 22 through August 28: This model indicates a trough of low pressure will be off shore during the early part of the period. It will then form another low over Nevada. This poses little if any chance of precipitation, but it would maintain a westerly flow with a possibly deep marine layer which would allow temperatures to slide a bit below average.
August: This model shows a significant trough of low pressure east of the Rockies and overall fairly strong high pressure dominating the western third of the U.S. This should create above average temperatures for the month with a chance of the return of the monsoon from time to time. Generally, temperatures will be above average with a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
August, September, October: The trend towards above average temperatures shows up once again through at least August and September. October is more iffy. As far as precipitation is concerned, conditions will remain near average. Remember, the real rainfall season doesn’t begin until November so no significant amounts of precipitation are seen at this time.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through tonight. There will be local gusts to near 30 MPH, mainly along the west side and especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be generally less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Expect dry weather for the foreseeable future.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/80% Bakersfield, 25%/65%
Actual Humidity August, 13, 2017: Delano, 82%/14%, Porterville, 79%13%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days August 13, 2017: Stratford 2.05, Parlier 1.61, Blackwell 2.00, Lindcove 1.78, Arvin 2.15, Orange Cove 2.06, Porterville 1.70, Delano 1.81, Madera Two 1.70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 76, Parlier 83, Blackwell 81, Lindcove 79, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 84, Delano NA, Madera Two 82
Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 83.9. +4.8
Record Temperatures: 112/54. Average Temperatures: 98/65
Cooling degree Days This Season: 1483, +380 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 13, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.88 or +5.88, Month to Date: Trace
Since August 13, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.46, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:16 am Sunset: 7:50 Hours of Daylight: 13:36
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 91 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 93 / 67 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 94 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 95 / 60 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 96 / 70 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 93 / 64 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 95 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 95 / 61 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 95 / 72 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 67 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.78 158 16.69 121 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 122 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 121 12.96 110 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 112 8.26 83 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 123 5.43 85 6.36 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 187 3.88 79 4.91 5.18
SALINAS T 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.14 129 8.06 65 12.48 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.44 134 9.00 65 13.80 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Wednesday, August 16