August 19, 2017
Summary: Temporarily, we remain under a dome of upper level high pressure which will drive hotter locations into the lower 100s today and Sunday. Checking the usual weather stations gives us an indication that there is no air coming through the Delta or any other gap or pass and the marine layer itself is only 1,800 feet deep.
There is an interesting weather feature that has developed over the past 48 hours. A very weak upper low is elongated from Utah all the way to off the south/central California coast. As a result, thunderstorms erupted over the Sierra Nevada with a repeat performance over the next couple of afternoons. Models show an increase in moisture around this low beginning Sunday night and lasting through Tuesday. If models are correct, there will be enough moisture for thunderstorms to spread over the Kern County mountains and deserts Monday and Tuesday. This pattern will have to be closely watched as it is possible sprinkles or even an isolated shower or thunderstorm could occur out over the valley floor. The chance of rain at this time looks very low at any given location, but nevertheless, the slight chance of this occurring needs to be added to the forecast.
By Wednesday, the low will be kicked eastward by a trough of low pressure deepening along the west coast. This will turn the winds aloft to west to east, which is a dry pattern. It should also allow marine air into the valley from time to time Wednesday and Thursday, lowering temperatures possibly into the low to mid 90s. models do show another high building towards next weekend which will bring with it our next warming trend.
Forecast: Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday. Variable cloudiness at times late Sunday night through Tuesday with a slight chance of sprinkles or even a light shower or thunderstorm. Partly cloudy Tuesday night. Mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 100/67/99/67/94 | Reedley 99/66/99/67/95 | Dinuba 98/66/98/66/94 | |
| Porterville 101/67/100/66/95 | Lindsay 100/65/99/65/96 | Delano 101/69/100/67/96 | |
| Bakersfield 102/75/100/74/97 | Arvin 103/71/101/69/97 | Taft 100/77/100/75/97 | |
| Lamont 103/71/101/69/97 | Pixley 100/68/100/67/96 | Tulare 99/66/99/66/94 | |
| Woodlake 99/66/99/65/95 | Hanford 101/66/100/65/94 | Orosi 99/67/99/66/95 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 70/97 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 64/95 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 63/94 |
Friday
Mostly clear 66/97 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 67/99 |
Two Week Outlook: August 25 through August 31: This model indicates a trough of low pressure will be off shore during the early part of the period. It will then form another low over Nevada. This poses little if any chance of precipitation, but it would maintain a westerly flow with a possibly deep marine layer which would allow temperatures to slide a bit below average.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Tuesday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: An interesting feature has popped up on the weather map over the past 48 hours. This feature will again set off thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. Models do show some increase in moisture late Sunday night through Tuesday which could result in a few sprinkles or even an isolated late shower or thunderstorm over the valley floor. The chance of measurable rain at any given location is very low, but does have to be mentioned.
By Wednesday, the winds aloft will become westerly, shoving the low pressure system and its moisture into the interior west for a return to dry weather. expect dry weather Wednesday through next weekend and beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/80% Bakersfield, 20%/55%
Actual Humidity August, 17, 2017: Delano, 79%/29%, Porterville, 91%30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates over the Past Seven Days August 17, 2017: Stratford 1.89, Parlier 1.52, Blackwell 2.02, Lindcove 1.66, Arvin 2.04, Orange Cove 1.93, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.73, Madera Two 1.59. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 83, Blackwell 79, Lindcove 78, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 84, Delano 83, Madera Two 81
Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 82.5. +3.6
Record Temperatures: 112/52. Average Temperatures: 97/64
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1536, +380 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 17, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.88 or +5.88, Month to Date: T
Since August 17, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.46, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:20 am Sunset: 7:45 Hours of Daylight: 13:27
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 98 / 67 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 71 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 70 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 103 / 68 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 100 / 76 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 97 / 69 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1657 / 99 / 71 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 98 / 69 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 97 / 76 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 96 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.78 158 16.69 121 13.76 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 122 12.84 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 121 12.96 110 11.75 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.32 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 112 8.26 83 9.91 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 123 5.43 85 6.37 6.47
BISHOP T 9.18 187 3.88 79 4.92 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.65 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.14 129 8.06 65 12.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.44 134 9.00 65 13.80 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Sunday, August 20