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Forecast

August 23, 2017

August 23, 2017

Summary: Water vapor satellite imagery is doing a good job in tracking a very weak upper low which is currently centered a few hundred miles west of Santa Barbara.  As a result, the marine layer has risen again to around 2,000 feet with minor influxes through the Delta and Pacheco Pass.  The flow is pretty much a trickle so it will not have much impact on temperatures over the next couple of afternoons.

 

The low is forecast to move southeastward and dissipate over southern California Thursday and Friday.  its current position has winds out of the east which is allowing some mid and high level moisture to move above central California.  The only impact will be scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms over the  Sierra Nevada which will be much less numerous Thursday and again Friday.

 

We are looking forward to a heat wave to begin Saturday.  Upper level high pressure will build in from the eastern Pacific and will eventually interconnect with another high center over the Four Corners region.  By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, the high will be centered over Nevada, maintaining hot weather.  it may be the following weekend before a trough of low pressure moves inland well to our north, possibly bringing us a shot of marine air and lowering temperatures.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear skies through Saturday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 96/65/98/66/99 Reedley 96/66/98/66/99 Dinuba 96/66/97/65/98
Porterville 99/66/99/67/100 Lindsay 98/64/98/66/99 Delano 97/66/98/67/100
Bakersfield 99/73/99/74/100 Arvin 100/69/100/70/101 Taft 98/73/98/73/99
Lamont 100/69/100/69/101 Pixley 98/66/98/67/99 Tulare 97/64/98/65/99
Woodlake 97/65/98/65/99 Hanford 98/67/98/67/100 Orosi 97/65/98/66/98

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Mostly clear

68/101

Sunday

Mostly clear

69/103

Monday

Mostly clear

71/104

Tuesday

Mostly clear

71/104

Wednesday

Mostly clear

70/102

 

Two Week Outlook: August 29 through September 4:  Upper level high pressure will again dominate the pattern during this period.  This model is also indicating the monsoon will work its way further west into at least southern California.  There would appear to be a better than even chance for thunderstorm activity over the Sierra Nevada, but no precipitation is expected over the valley floor.

 

September:  This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S.  There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season.  With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.

 

September, October, November:  It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame.  Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Saturday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather indefinitely.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 20%/80%  Bakersfield, 20%/55%

Actual Humidity August 21, 2017: Delano, 72%/33%, Porterville, 76%31%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates over the Past Seven Days August 21, 2017: Stratford 1.78, Parlier 1.41, Blackwell 1.96, Lindcove 1.52, Arvin 1.88, Orange Cove 1.78, Porterville 1.51, Delano 1.64, Madera Two 1.44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 80, Blackwell 79, Lindcove 78, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 82, Porterville 84, Delano 83, Madera Two 81

 

Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 82.6. +3.9

Record Temperatures: 108/50. Average Temperatures: 96/64

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1610, +402 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since August 21, 2017,  Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.88 or +5.88, Month to Date: T

Since August 21, 2017,  Bakersfield:  7.88, or 1.46,  Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:23 am  Sunset: 7:39 Hours of Daylight: 13:20

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  95 /  61 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  97 /  66 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  97 /  67 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  99 /  66 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  96 /  71 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  96 /  67 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1656 /  97 /  65 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  98 /  66 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 /  95 /  72 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  93 /  62 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:

To date       Last year      Average  Annual ave

MODESTO                       0.00   16.93   132   15.61   122    12.84    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   16.03   131   14.66   120    12.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   14.18   121   12.96   110    11.75    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   17.20   152   14.29   126    11.32    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00   11.05   111    8.26    83     9.92    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.82   123    5.43    85     6.37     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    9.18   186    3.88    79     4.94     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   16.45   130   13.47   106    12.65    12.83

PASO ROBLES                      T   16.14   129    8.06    64    12.51    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   18.44   134    9.00    65    13.80    13.95

Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th

 

Next Report: Thursday, August 24