August 31, 2017
Summary: In the short term, there have been isolated sprinkles and even an isolated thunderstorm over Kern County during the early morning hours. Current radar and satellite imagery indicate this activity has ceased and is now being driven towards the northeast by a developing southwest flow aloft. The only real activity over California this morning is over the Mojave Desert where isolated thunderstorms are occurring.
The main focus again will be the seemingly relentless heat wave. Upper level high pressure is currently building into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This will generate a temporary off shore flow which will drive up heat all the way to the coast.
The other factor we’re concentrating on is to the south. The monsoon flow has pretty much come to an end outside of southern California, however tropical storm Lidia is moving towards the north/northwest at 8 MPH and will clip the southern half of Baja today and on through the weekend. Most of the model information for Lidia show it weakening to a depression by Monday. By then, the center of circulation should be about 400 miles to the southwest of San Diego.
The depression will move to the northwest from there. Over the weekend and into early next week, winds aloft will again be out of the southeast. This could keep Lidia’s moisture just off shore. Most models this morning show precipitation moving no further north than the border between California and Mexico. This is a low confidence forecast. For now, it appears dry from Monday on, but with thunderstorms over the mountains and a slight chance over the valley floor.
Forecast: Mostly clear today through Sunday with occasional periods of mainly mid level clouds. Becoming partly cloudy late Sunday night through Tuesday with a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms. Mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 104/69/106/72/108 | Reedley 103/69/105/72/107 | Dinuba 103/68/106/71/107 | |
| Porterville 104/70/106/72/109 | Lindsay 104/69/107/72/108 | Delano 105/74/107/77/109 | |
| Bakersfield 105/81/106/83/109 | Arvin 106/74/107/77/110 | Taft 104/81/106/84/108 | |
| Lamont 106/78/107/80/110 | Pixley 104/71/106/73/108 | Tulare 104/68/105/71/107 | |
| Woodlake 104/70/107/73/108 | Hanford 104/69/107/74/109 | Orosi 104/68/106/71/108 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 74/106 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 74/97 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 74/96 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 70/99 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 69/99 |
Two Week Outlook: September 7 through September 13: This model is rather interesting this morning. It shows a moist, southerly flow moving into southern California from a possible tropical system not even on the weather map yet. On paper, central California is on the northern rim of activity. It’s too far out to put rain in the forecast, but it is a model one doesn’t see often. Temperatures will remain at least marginally above average.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Sunday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: In the very short term, moisture rotating from southwest to northeast moved over southern and central California overnight. It appears a ripple of low pressure was embedded within this flow, setting off isolated thunderstorms overnight, mainly in Kern County. Satellite imagery indicates most of this moisture has moved off to the northeast for what will turn out to be a dry, hot day ahead.
Of more concern is tropical storm Lidia which is located just to the south of Cabo San Lucas and is moving northwest at 8 MPH. model information shows this storm moving slowly up the Baja peninsula before taking a northwesterly job, becoming a depression in the process. It should be about 400 miles to the southwest of San Diego by Monday. It will then move northward parallel to the California coast. For now it appears Lidia’s moisture should remain out of the state as a southeasterly flow will develop. This is by no means guaranteed, however. These systems are quite difficult to forecast. There is even some indication moisture from the monsoon will again work its way northwestward over central California Monday through Wednesday, possibly resulting in isolated showers or thunderstorms. Right now, I project the chance of measurable rain at any given location at about 20% or so, especially near the foothills.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/75% Bakersfield, 20%/50%
Actual Humidity August 29, 2017: Delano, 78%/17%, Porterville, 77%/16%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days August 29, 2017: Stratford 1.97, Parlier 1.59, Blackwell 1.99, Lindcove 1.70, Arvin 1.99, Orange Cove 1.88, Porterville 1.59, Delano 1.71, Madera Two 1.57. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 82, Blackwell 81, Lindcove 79, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 86, Delano 83, Madera Two 82
Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 83.3. +4.9
Record Temperatures: 109/49. Average Temperatures: 95/63
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1774, +467 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 29, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.87 or +5.87, Month to Date: T
Since August 29, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.46, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:29 am Sunset: 7:28 Hours of Daylight: 13:01
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 103 / 77 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 103 / 74 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 77 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 102 / 82 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 99 / 73 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 103 / 76 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 102 / 75 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 103 / 83 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 99 / 68 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 121 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.20 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 120 12.96 110 11.77 12.02
FRESNO T 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.33 11.50
HANFORD T 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 7.82 122 5.43 85 6.39 6.47
BISHOP T 9.18 184 3.88 78 4.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.14 129 8.06 64 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.44 134 9.00 65 13.81 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Friday, September 1