A sunday report will be issued.
September 2, 2017
Summary: Temperatures along the California coast yesterday were bizarre. San Francisco recorded an all time record of 106. Down the coast at Monterey the temperature was 101. There are many other record highs to our west with just plain hot weather in the valley.
We have two primary features that will play out over the next 72 hours. Strong upper level high pressure has shifted eastward and is now centered over the Great Basin. This will cause the off shore flow to continue for one more day before the high shifts southeastward and centers over the Four Corners region Monday through Wednesday.
Tropical storm Lidia is more than half way up the Baja Peninsula. The cloud shield from Lidia has burst its way into the coastal areas of San Luis Obispo down to Los Angeles County. Some of these clouds are showing up in the south valley. Doppler radar is also showing precipitation moving towards the northwest. There is an excellent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern California Sunday and Monday with increasing clouds over the valley floor. There is also a slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor.
Activity over the Sierra Nevada will definitely pick up and I wouldn’t be surprised to see storms break out over the Kern County mountains. With the winds aloft out of the southeast, some of these storms could move over the valley floor, although the chance is low at any given location.
Lidia will shift to the northwest beginning today then will turn into a depression tonight and Sunday. It appears the deepest tropical moisture will pass right along the California coast with the best chance of precipitation being from the Coast Range to the beaches. By late Monday night and Tuesday, what remains of Lidia will move farther out to sea, ending the threat of precipitation on the valley floor.
With the upper high centered over the Four Corners region Monday through Wednesday, the winds aloft will remain out of the southeast result in mid and high level moisture moving into California. Thunderstorms will be possible in the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains Tuesday through Thursday before a trough of low pressure moves inland through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This will bring about a long awaited cooling trend. In fact, temperatures by Friday could lower into the upper 80s to the lower 90s, depending upon how much marine air does spill inland.
More of a southwesterly flow will prevail next week. This is a dry flow and will end any activity over the mountains with relatively mild temperatures continuing through roughly the middle part of the following week.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with a small chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. The small risk of showers and tstorms will continue Sunday night and Monday. It will then become partly cloudy Monday night through Thursday. Mostly clear and fairly mild Thursday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 108/73/105/74/100 | Reedley 108/73/104/74/99 | Dinuba 107/74/103/74/99 | |
| Porterville 109/74/105/74/101 | Lindsay 108/73/105/74/100 | Delano 108/76/104/76/101 | |
| Bakersfield 110/85/106/80/102 | Arvin 111/81/106/78/102 | Taft 108/86/106/82/101 | |
| Lamont 110/79/106/76/101 | Pixley 109/74/105/74/101 | Tulare 107/73/103/73/100 | |
| Woodlake 107/73/104/74/100 | Hanford 110/74/105/74/101 | Orosi 108/74/105/73/100 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 72/98 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 67/97 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 64/94 |
Friday
Mostly clear 62/93 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/91 |
Two Week Outlook: September 9 through September 15: This model indicates another regime of above average temperatures will be at hand. Persistent upper level high pressure is the dominant feature, allowing the chance of afternoon and evening storms over the mountains during this period. For now, we’ll keep the chance of precipitation out of the forecast for the valley floor while strictly monitoring conditions.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Tuesday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Somewhat of a tricky situation over the next 36 hours or so. Tropical Storm Lidia is more than half way up the Baja, California coast. Doppler radar out of Yuma and Tucson shows rain creeping northward towards the Arizona and southern California border with Mexico. From this point on, Lidia will head to the northwest off the southern California coast. Models give a good chance of showers and thunderstorms from the beaches and Coast Range, but not the San Joaquin Valley.
Since the possibility of showers and thunderstorms are modeling in such close proximity to the valley, at least a small chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms need to be added to the forecast for mainly Sunday through Monday. If models are correct, most locations will remain dry, however this is rather nerve-wracking, so I’ll maintain that small chance again through Monday.
By Tuesday, Lidia will be a depression well off the California coast and will no longer be a factor in our weather. from Tuesday through Thursday, winds aloft will be out of the southeast which will keep thunderstorms going over the mountains and possibly the foothills. For now, though, I don’t anticipate any activity over the valley floor.
From Friday and beyond, the upper winds will become southwesterly, shoving the monsoon further east.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/75% Bakersfield, 15%/45%
Actual Humidity August 31, 2017: Delano, 83%/20%, Porterville, 80%/22%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 30%, Bakersfield: Today 60% tomorrow 20%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days August 31, 2017: Stratford 1.96, Parlier 1.57, Blackwell 1.95, Lindcove 1.71, Arvin 1.99, Orange Cove 1.82, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.69, Madera Two 1.59. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 77, Parlier 83, Blackwell 83, Lindcove 80, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 86, Delano 84, Madera Two 82
Mean Temperatures for August Month So Far: 83.5. +5.1
Record Temperatures: 107/51. Average Temperatures: 95/62
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1817, +486 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 31, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.87 or +5.87, Month to Date: T
Since August 31, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.43, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:31 am Sunset: 7:25 Hours of Daylight: 12:48
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 102 / 63 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 103 / 72 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 104 / 64 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 108 / 67 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 103 / 78 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 102 / 66 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 102 / 71 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 103 / 69 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 103 / 79 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
Rainfall
To date Last year Average Annual Ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 121 12.85 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.21 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 120 12.96 110 11.77 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 5.43 85 6.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 184 3.88 78 4.98 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 16.14 129 8.06 64 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.44 134 9.00 65 13.81 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Sunday, September 3