September 4, 2017
Summary: Thunderstorms developed yesterday over the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains. The southeast flow aloft allowed some of these storms to make it out over the valley floor. There were locally heavy rains and strong, gusty winds, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties. This will be possible again this afternoon, assuming skies clear at least a little bit.
All of this moisture is courtesy of Tropical Storm Lidia which currently is centered well off the southcentral California coast. The counterclockwise circulation around the low has a wide swath of cloud cover over southern and central California. There is hope eternal as the remains of Lidia move towards the northwest, they will be much further off shore, allowing mostly clear skies Tuesday and beyond.
A southeast flow will continue through Wednesday, but it will be a drier air mass. Even so, thunderstorms will be possible over the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains through Wednesday.
By Thursday, a trough of low pressure will be moving inland through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This will create a well deserved break from the heat, a break that should last through the weekend.
Models for next week show high pressure building in again with above average temperatures, possibly above the century mark once again.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today with a chance of isolates showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Clearing late tonight with mostly clear skies Tuesday and on through the weekend with occasional high and mid-level clouds. Mostly clear Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 97/70/94/68/94 | Reedley 98/71/94/68/94 | Dinuba 97/69/94/66/93 | |
| Porterville 98/69/95/67/94 | Lindsay 98/68/94/66/93 | Delano 99/72/95/70/94 | |
| Bakersfield 101/75/95/71/95 | Arvin 102/72/95/71/95 | Taft 99/79/95/73/94 | |
| Lamont 102/74/96/71/96 | Pixley 98/71/94/68/93 | Tulare 96/70/94/70/92 | |
| Woodlake 97/70/94/67/93 | Hanford 98/69/94/66/94 | Orosi 97/71/93/66/93 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 63/91 |
Friday
Mostly clear 63/92 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 62/91 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 63/93 |
Monday
Mostly clear 65/96 |
Two Week Outlook: September 12 through September 18: This model indicates another regime of above average temperatures will be at hand. Persistent upper level high pressure is the dominant feature, allowing the chance of afternoon and evening storms over the mountains during this period. For now, we’ll keep the chance of precipitation out of the forecast for the valley floor while strictly monitoring conditions.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Thursday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings. Locally strong, gusty winds are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.
Rain: Yesterday was quite a day with isolated thunderstorms moving off the mountains and into the valley. All this is due to Tropical Depression Lidia which is moving northwestward further out to sea. There is a wide swath of cloud cover extending from roughly Palm Springs through all of central California. We could get a few sprinkles this morning, but that’s all.
If skies at least partially clear with some sunshine, it would allow more thunderstorms to form over the mountain areas. With a southeast flow aloft, storms would be nudged over the foothills and possibly into the valley.
Most locations will remain dry, perhaps a sprinkle or two. All this moisture from Lidia should move northwestward out of the area later tonight with mostly clear skies returning Tuesday and lasting through the remainder of the week and likely all of next week, as well.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 25%/75% Bakersfield, 25%/45%
Actual Humidity August 31, 2017: Delano, 71%/21%, Porterville, 83%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 3, 2017: Stratford 1.92, Parlier 1.50, Blackwell 12.00, Lindcove 1.58, Arvin 1.88, Orange Cove 1.78, Porterville 1.54, Delano 1.66, Madera Two 1.53 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove 80, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 87, Delano 84, Madera Two 83
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 88.2.5. +12.1
Record Temperatures: 107/51. Average Temperatures: 95/62
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1887, +523 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 31, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.87 or +5.87, Month to Date: T
Since August 31, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.43, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:33 am Sunset: 7:21 Hours of Daylight: 12:44
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 105 / 70 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 106 / 74 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 107 / 79 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 107 / 73 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 112 / 81 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 111 / 84 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 105 / 75 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 107 / 85 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 107 / 80 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 107 / 85 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.78 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 121 12.86 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 120 12.96 110 11.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.33 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.82 122 5.43 85 6.39 6.47
BISHOP T 9.18 184 3.88 78 4.99 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 16.14 129 8.06 64 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.09 18.53 134 9.00 65 13.82 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Tuesday, September 5