September 5, 2017
Summary: The remains of Lidia are no more than a low pressure system off the central coast. This low is farther out to sea and is moving to the west, ending the chance of rain for the San Joaquin Valley. This low is forecast to move northward and eventually move through northern California about Friday.
In the meantime, our attention needs to turn to the monsoon. Mid level moisture in the form of cloud cover is currently moving through southern California and will move into central California today. Radar shows no active weather within this cloud cover, however it will move more moisture into the area with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and a small chance over the Kern County mountains. Currently, I don’t believe any of this activity will reach the valley floor, but we will have to keep a close eye on it as southeasterly winds aloft could nudge thunderstorms over the foothills.
By Thursday, a trough of low pressure will be approaching the coast, absorbing the remains of Lidia. By that time, the remains may be in Oregon. A cooler air mass associated with this trough along with an increasing on shore flow moving marine air into the valley will cause temperatures to drop into at least the lower 90s Thursday through Saturday. Temps will be in the mid 90s Monday through Wednesday as weaker high pressure takes hold.
Also, a cut off low is projected to form off the southern or central California coast over the weekend. For now, it doesn’t appear any active weather will be associated with this low, but it could drag monsoonal moisture up to trigger isolated thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Longer range models show near average temperatures through the middle of next week and then above average temperatures beginning about Thursday of next week as upper level high pressure begins to build inland.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today and tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 94/66/93/65/89 | Reedley 96/66/94/63/88 | Dinuba 94/66/93/63/88 | |
| Porterville 96/67/94/64/90 | Lindsay 97/66/94/63/89 | Delano 96/68/94/65/89 | |
| Bakersfield 95/72/93/68/90 | Arvin 97/69/95/67/91 | Taft 95/76/94/71/90 | |
| Lamont 97/71/94/69/91 | Pixley 95/68/94/66/90 | Tulare 95/67/94/63/89 | |
| Woodlake 95/68/94/63/89 | Hanford 95/68/93/66/89 | Orosi 95/67/93/64/88 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly clear 64/89 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 64/91 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 67/94 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 69/96 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 67/97 |
Two Week Outlook: September 12 through September 18: This model indicates another regime of above average temperatures will be at hand. Persistent upper level high pressure is the dominant feature, allowing the chance of afternoon and evening storms over the mountains during this period. For now, we’ll keep the chance of precipitation out of the forecast for the valley floor while strictly monitoring conditions.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Friday and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least the middle of next week and quite possibly beyond.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 60s. Kern: Low to mid 60s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 35%/75% Bakersfield, 30%/60%
Actual Humidity August 31, 2017: Delano, 71%/21%, Porterville, 83%/20%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 3, 2017: Stratford 1.92, Parlier 1.50, Blackwell 12.00, Lindcove 1.58, Arvin 1.88, Orange Cove 1.78, Porterville 1.54, Delano 1.66, Madera Two 1.53 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 83, Blackwell 84, Lindcove 80, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 87, Delano 84, Madera Two 83
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 88.2.5. +12.1
Record Temperatures: 107/51. Average Temperatures: 95/62
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1887, +523 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since August 31, 2017, Fresno: 17.20 season / +5.87 or +5.87, Month to Date: T
Since August 31, 2017, Bakersfield: 7.88, or 1.43, Month to Date: T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:33 am Sunset: 7:21 Hours of Daylight: 12:44
Yesterday’s Weather
CE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 97 / 74 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 79 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 101 / 80 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 102 / 74 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 106 / 81 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 101 / 81 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 100 / 75 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 99 / 78 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 101 / 74 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 102 / 78 / M /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 100 / 75 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 99 / 78 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 101 / 74 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 102 / 78 / M /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.78 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 132 15.61 121 12.86 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 120 12.22 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 120 12.96 110 11.78 12.02
FRESNO T 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.93 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 7.83 122 5.43 85 6.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 184 3.88 78 4.99 5.18
SALINAS T 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 16.16 129 8.06 64 12.56 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.06 18.69 135 9.00 65 13.82 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Wednesday, September 6