September 11, 2017
Summary: The center of a cut off low is located about 500 miles to the west/southwest of Santa Barbara. Monsoon moisture is wrapping around the low, especially over its eastern and northern flanks. Light showers did occur in western Fresno County during the early morning hours and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over southern Monterey County.
To our south, over the deserts of southern California, another batch of monsoonal moisture is moving from southwest to northeast towards central California. This may turn out to be an interesting day as the proximity of the low is close enough to sustain possible showers and isolated thunderstorms over the valley floor. Storms will break out over the Kern County mountains and the Sierra Nevada, not to mention the Coast Range. Activity will move from southeast to northwest.
This is one of our early fall type situations where many locations will not receive any precipitation while others could pick up a tenth of an inch or less. It’s possible, however, considerably more than that could fall as the low begins to move northward tonight and Tuesday.
By late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the low will move directly across central California as it becomes entrained into a trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest. This trough will pack enough punch to lower temperatures a great deal at mid week with readings only in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday through Friday. Expect a slow warm up over the weekend as weak upper level high pressure begins to build.
Longer range models show a tropical system near southern Baja later next week, however the latest information would take the moisture into Mexico and possibly Arizona and New Mexico.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through Tuesday with the risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and tonight. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday with a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear and mild Wednesday night through Friday. mostly clear Friday night through Monday with a slow warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 98/70/95/67/89 | Reedley 98/71/95/67/88 | Dinuba 97/70/95/65/88 | |
| Porterville 98/72/96/66/90 | Lindsay 98/72/96/65/89 | Delano 99/73/96/68/90 | |
| Bakersfield 99/77/96/71/91 | Arvin 100/73/97/70/91 | Taft 98/76/96/71/90 | |
| Lamont 99/74/96/69/91 | Pixley 98/72/96/67/90 | Tulare 97/71/95/65/89 | |
| Woodlake 98/70/95/65/89 | Hanford 99/71/96/67/90 | Orosi 97/72/95/66/88 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 62/87 |
Friday
Mostly clear 60/88 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 61/91 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 62/93 |
Monday
Mostly clear 62/95 |
Two Week Outlook: September 18 through September 24: This model shows a pretty active pattern moving into the Pacific Northwest and clipping northern California. For now, it does not appear precipitation will affect central California, but this regime should keep temperatures near to slightly below average.
September: This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S. There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season. With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.
September, October, November: It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame. Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 15 MPH through Tuesday night with stronger gusts near the base of thunderstorms. Winds Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts below some of the gaps and passes along the Coast Range. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.
Rain: Currently, there are showers and thunderstorms moving quickly from southeast to northwest along the Coast Range from Monterey southward to Santa Barbara County. There is another batch of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the high deserts which will move over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains over the next couple of hours. During the late morning and afternoon hours, this activity could affect the valley floor as lift from the off shore flow will sustain this activity, even over the flat lands.
The greatest risk of measurable rain will be from this afternoon through tonight as the off shore flow begins to move northeastward. I want to keep a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday through Wednesday as the low will track across the area on Wednesday. The best chance of precipitation during this time frame will be north of Kern County as the most active portion of this storm will be over its northern and eastern sectors.
Precipitation amounts will range from nothing to upwards of a tenth of an inch. Locally more could occur in isolated thunderstorms. However, most of the activity on radar is moving northwest at 40 MPH which means showers and thunderstorms will not be over any given location for long.
Dry weather will return Wednesday night with continued dry conditions Thursday and through at least the middle of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 60s. Kern: Low to mid 60s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 35%/85% Bakersfield, 30%/65%
Actual Humidity September 9, 2017: Delano, 77%/31%, Porterville, 84%/27%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 40%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 9, 2017: Stratford 1.61, Parlier 1.32, Blackwell 1.72, Lindcove 1.35, Arvin 1.47, Orange Cove 1.51, Porterville 1.31, Delano 1.45, Madera Two 1.32 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 78, Parlier 84, Blackwell 82, Lindcove 80, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 83, Porterville 86, Delano 83, Madera Two 84
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 84.4 +8.6
Record Temperatures: 108/48. Average Temperatures: 93/62
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 1994, +567 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 9, 2017 Fresno: 17.20 season. or +5.85. Month to Date: T
Since September 9, 2017 Bakersfield: 7.89, or 1.43, Month to Date: .01,
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:38 am Sunset: 7:12 Hours of Daylight: 12:38
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 101 / 66 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 98 / 70 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 99 / 65 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 101 / 65 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 99 / 75 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 96 / 65 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 91 / 67 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 97 / 66 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 94 / 75 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 158 16.69 121 13.81 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 131 15.61 121 12.88 13.11
MERCED 0.00 16.03 131 14.66 119 12.27 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.18 120 12.96 110 11.82 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 17.20 152 14.29 126 11.35 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 11.05 111 8.26 83 9.96 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.83 122 5.43 85 6.40 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 9.18 183 3.88 77 5.02 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.45 130 13.47 106 12.68 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.16 128 8.06 64 12.58 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 18.70 135 9.00 65 13.84 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Monday, September 11/pm