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Forecast

September 21, 2017

September 21, 2017

Summary:  For this early in the year, a well defined cold front is moving down the valley.  Light rain has occurred along the east side from Merced County all the way along the foothills of Tulare County.  The front will soon sweep through Kern County with dry weather quickly returning.  A strong west to northwest flow accompanied by a 135 MPH jet stream aloft is following the front and will support strong, gusty northwesterly winds, especially along the west side where gusts to near 40 MPH are not out of the question.  Winds of 10 to 10 MPH with stronger gusts will be the likelihood elsewhere.

 

Temperatures will plummet today, especially in Kern County where upslope clouds along the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada may provide enough cloud cover to keep temperatures down.  Even where it stays clear, readings will only be in the lower 70s at most locations.

 

A huge trough of low pressure extends from almost Hudson Bay, Canada to off the central California coast.  A strong northwesterly flow will continue through the weekend with well below average temperatures, but no rain is in the forecast.

 

By Monday, upper level high pressure off shore will build into the Pacific Northwest and northern California, creating an off shore flow.  With warmer air aloft coupled with the off shore flow, temperatures will likely be about 90 by Tuesday and in the low to mid 90s Wednesday and Thursday.

 

The two week outlook also looks dry with upper level high pressure persisting.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear north of Kings and Tulare Counties today.  Partly to mostly cloudy in Kern County with a small chance of light showers.  Partly to mostly cloudy in Kern County tonight and Friday morning and mostly clear elsewhere.  Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday with a warming trend.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 72/43/75/44/80 Reedley 71/42/76/44/79 Dinuba 72/43/75/44/78
Porterville 73/44/76/45/80 Lindsay 72/41/76/44/80 Delano 72/48/76/48/81
Bakersfield 70/52/75/54/79 Arvin 69/51/74/54/82 Taft 72/54/76/54/79
Lamont 69/50/75/53/81 Pixley 72/44/75/45/80 Tulare 71/43/74/45/79
Woodlake 73/43/75/45/80 Hanford 73/43/75/45/80 Orosi 72/43/76/45/79

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

52/82

Monday

Mostly clear

54/88

Tuesday

Mostly clear

58/91

Wednesday

Mostly clear

59/92

Thursday

Mostly clear

61/93

 

Two Week Outlook: September 27 through October 3:  This model reverts back to a ridge pattern with high pressure being dominant over the western United States.  This would dry temperatures to above and possibly well above average during this time frame with little chance of precipitation.

 

September:  This model shows upper level high pressure more dominant over the western U.S.  There’s no clear indicator of above or below average rainfall as we move into the fall season.  With that in mind, we’ll call for near average precipitation for the month.

 

September, October, November:  It appears temperatures overall will rise to above average values for the bulk of this time frame.  Upper level high pressure is also more dominant with precipitation, believe it or not, predicted to be somewhat near average.

 

Winds:  Gusty northwest winds will prevail through this evening, especially along the west side where gusts to near 40 MPH are not out of the question.  Elsewhere, winds of 10 to 20 MPH can be expected with possibly stronger gusts at times.  Winds will begin to diminish this evening with 5 to 10 MPH winds later tonight.  Winds Friday will generally be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, continuing Saturday with locally stronger gusts.

 

Rain: Light showers have occurred along the east side from Madera County southward to the Kern County line.  It appears this area of light showers is mostly moving into the Sierra Nevada.  Still, Kern County could see trace amounts, especially near the foothills.  Behind the front, skies are rapidly clearing and will reveal a dry late morning through the remainder of the day.

 

This is the only rain threat we will likely see for quite some time as models are showing strong upper level high pressure building along the Pacific coast beginning Monday and lasting through all of next week.  Even the two week model is pointing to dry weather with above average temperatures.

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Upper 30s to the lower 40s

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 30%/80%  Bakersfield, 30%/75%

Actual Humidity September 19, 2017: Delano, 83%/30%, Porterville, 83%/23%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 30% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 50%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 19, 2017: Stratford 1.47, Parlier 1.26, Blackwell 1.51, Lindcove 1.23, Arvin 1.42, Orange Cove 1.42, Porterville 1.04, Delano 1.31, Madera Two 1.25 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 75, Parlier 76, Blackwell 77, Lindcove 77, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 77, Porterville 82, Delano 77, Madera Two 80

 

Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 79.6+4.9

Record Temperatures: 104/46. Average Temperatures: 90/59

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2100, +583 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since September 19, 2017  Fresno: 17.30 season. or +5.89.  Month to Date: .10

Since September 19, 2017  Bakersfield:  7.89, or +1.90,  Month to Date: ..51, Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:44 am  Sunset: 6:57 Hours of Daylight: 12:14

 

Yesterday’s Weather

:                                           Max   Min   24Hr  Snow

: Id    Name               Elev    TIME     Temp  Temp  Pcpn  Depth

:

: …Valley…

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  81 /  55 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  83 /  51 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  82 /  56 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  84 /  50 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  86 /  50 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  83 /  58 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  82 /  51 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1657 /  83 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  83 /  50 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1652 /  81 /  59 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  84 /  59 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:

To date       Last year      Average  Annual ave

STOCKTON                      0.00   21.79   157   16.69   120    13.91    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   16.93   131   15.61   120    12.96    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   16.03   130   14.66   119    12.37    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   14.26   120   12.96   109    11.90    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   17.30   152   14.29   125    11.41    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00   11.16   111    8.26    82    10.02    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    8.33   130    5.43    84     6.43     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    9.18   181    3.88    76     5.08     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   16.49   130   13.47   106    12.73    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   16.17   128    8.06    64    12.65    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   18.91   136    9.00    65    13.88    13.95

Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th

 

Next Report: Friday, September 22