September 23, 2017
Summary: Temperatures are generally 3 to 5 degrees milder this morning then they were yesterday pre-dawn. However, many ag stations are down into the 40s once again, which is very chilly for this early in the season. The upper low is centered over Nevada and Idaho and has not moved much over the past 24 hours. The winds aloft along the western side of the low are right out of the north, maintaining below average temperatures through Monday even though readings will rise slowly before that. Up at 18,000 feet in the atmosphere is a northerly flow at 62 MPH above the valley floor. Freezing levels are still low for this early in the season with a reading of 9,1000 feet at Vandenberg and 8,200 feet over Oakland.
Most locations still won’t make it out of the 70s this afternoon with the warm spots possibly at 80 to 81. On Sunday, most locations will move back into the low to mid 80s and generally mid to upper 80s Monday as upper level high pressure builds slowly inland.
We will have a weak off shore flow beginning Sunday night which will aid in the warming trend with readings topping 90 degrees Wednesday and probably each day through next weekend. No excessively warm weather is expected as the incoming high is not especially strong.
A cut off low is expected to develop, possibly over western Arizona and southeast California about Thursday or Friday. currently, it does not look like moisture will move this far north, but rather into Arizona and Nevada. This is a cut off low, though, so we’ll have to keep a close eye on this feature later next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday. Mostly clear and warmer Tuesday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/48/82/51/85 | Reedley 79/47/82/52/86 | Dinuba 77/47/82/51/85 | |
| Porterville 79/48/82/52/86 | Lindsay 80/48/82/52/85 | Delano 80/52/83/55/86 | |
| Bakersfield 79/56/83/58/87 | Arvin 78/53/82/55/87 | Taft 79/56/81/57/86 | |
| Lamont 80/51/82/55/87 | Pixley 78/48/82/51/85 | Tulare 78/47/82/50/85 | |
| Woodlake 79/48/82/52/85 | Hanford 79/47/82/51/85 | Orosi 78/48/82/51/85 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 56/89 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 58/93 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 61/94 |
Friday
Mostly clear 62/93 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 60/92 |
Two Week Outlook: September 29 through October 5: This model reverts back to a ridge pattern with high pressure being dominant over the western United States. This would dry temperatures to above and possibly well above average during this time frame with little chance of precipitation.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Tuesday with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely
Afternoon Dew Points Today:.Visalia, Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Bakerfield, Mid to upper 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 25%/70% Bakersfield, 25%/60%
Actual Humidity September 21, 2017: Delano, 91%/33%, Porterville, 95%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 21, 2017: Stratford 1.44, Parlier 1.23, Blackwell 1.35, Lindcove 1.19, Arvin 1.27, Orange Cove 1.39, Porterville 1.03, Delano 1.22., Madera Two 1.20 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 73, Parlier 74, Blackwell 76, Lindcove 75, Arvin 1.89, Orange Cove 76, Porterville 88, Delano 76, Madera Two 78
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 78.3 +3.7
Record Temperatures: 104/41. Average Temperatures: 89/57
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2102, +570 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since September 21, 2017, Fresno: 17.36 season. or +5.94. Month to Date: .16
Since September 21, 2017, Bakersfield: 8.34, or +1.90, Month to Date: ..51, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 6:54 Hours of Daylight: 12:09
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 74 / 64 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 75 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 78 / 45 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 75 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 74 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 73 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 72 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 74 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
To date Last year Average Annual ave
STOCKTON 0.00 21.79 156 16.69 120 13.93 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 16.93 130 15.61 120 12.99 13.11
MERCED 0.01 16.05 130 14.66 118 12.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 14.26 120 12.96 109 11.92 12.02
FRESNO 0.06 17.36 152 14.29 125 11.42 11.50
HANFORD 0.05 11.21 112 8.26 82 10.03 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 8.34 130 5.43 84 6.44 6.47
BISHOP T 9.18 180 3.88 76 5.09 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 16.49 129 13.47 106 12.75 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 16.17 128 8.06 64 12.67 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.91 136 9.00 65 13.89 13.95
Rainfall season from October 1st through September 30th
Next Report: Monday, September 25