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Forecast

September 28, 2017

September 28, 2017

Summary:  The center of the upper low this morning has moved north/northeast and is now centered over Utah.  The counterclockwise circulation around the low is maintaining a northerly flow over California.  At the surface, a weak off shore flow is still prevalent.  In fact, the marine layer this morning at Monterey was only 200 feet deep.

 

In the meantime, a trough of low pressure is approaching the Pacific Northwest and will begin to move inland this weekend, turning the winds aloft and at the surface out of the west.  This will weaken the high and will deepen the marine layer enough to move through the Delta and down the valley for the beginning of a cooling trend, especially Sunday.  This low is forecast to remain over the Pacific Northwest through the latter part of next week.

 

Models also show an intensifying low over northern and central California Wednesday and Thursday.  Current models point to a dry forecast, however that is a low confidence call on my part as I do believe showers will break out over the mountain areas and I wouldn’t completely rule out a chance over the valley floor.  The best approach for this will be to call for a slight chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

 

Along with this change will be occasionally breezy weather and much cooler temperatures as readings begin to fall into the mid to upper 70s and possibly even a bit cooler.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Tuesday night.  Variable cloudiness Wednesday through Thursday with a slight chance of showers.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 92/55/92/55/86 Reedley 93/56/92/55/87 Dinuba 92/54/92/54/86
Porterville 93/56/92/55/87 Lindsay 92/55/92/54/87 Delano 93/57/91/56/86
Bakersfield 94/64/92/62/88 Arvin 95/60/91/59/88 Taft 93/67/92/64/87
Lamont 94/60/93/58/88 Pixley 93/57/92/56/87 Tulare 92/54/92/55/86
Woodlake 93/55/92/54/86 Hanford 93/55/92/55/86 Orosi 92/54/92/54/87

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

54/84

Monday

Mostly clear

52/84

Tuesday

Mostly clear

51/82

Wednesday

Slight chance of showers,

48/77

Thursday

Slight chance of showers

46/76

 

Two Week Outlook: October 4 through October 10:  This model indicates a trough of low pressure will be dominant during this time frame, lowering temperatures to below average.  This trough may be strong enough to spread showers over northern California with even a small chance over central California.  It would see temperatures below average with breezy conditions at times.

 

October:  The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest.  The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures.  Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.

 

October, November, December:  Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California.  Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Friday night, becoming out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH at times Saturday and Sunday.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Tuesday night.  There are variances between models for the middle and latter part of next week.  Most show precipitation remaining to our north, however one places a fairly robust low right over northern and central California about Wednesday or Thursday.  Even though much of the model information shows a dry forecast for the valley, there is enough room for error to put a slight chance of scattered showers in the forecast for both Wednesday and Thursday.  Even beyond that time frame, predominantly low pressure will remain over the western U.S., probably with no rain but with well below average temperatures.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Visalia, Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, Upper 30s to the mid 40s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 20%/85%  Bakersfield, 15%/55%

Actual Humidity September 26, 2017: Delano, 85%/17%, Porterville, 88%/14%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days September 26, 2017: Stratford 1.30, Parlier 1.08, Blackwell 1.24, Lindcove 1.10, Arvin 1.23, Orange Cove 1.23, Porterville 1.09, Delano 1.14., Madera Two 1.04 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 70, Blackwell 73, Lindcove 72, Arvin 77, Orange Cove 71, Porterville 75, Delano 71, Madera Two 74

 

Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 75.7 +1.7

Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 88/57

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2109, +544 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since September 26, 2017,  Fresno: 17.36 season. or +5.91.  Month to Date: .16

Since September 26, 2017,  Bakersfield:  8.34, or +1.89,  Month to Date: ..51, Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:52 am  Sunset: 6:46 Hours of Daylight: 11:58

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  92 /  54 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  92 /  60 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  94 /  51 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  96 /  54 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  93 /  53 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1652 /  94 /  56 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  93 /  55 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 /  92 /  66 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  92 /  57 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:

TOCKTON                       0.00   21.79   156   16.69   119    14.01    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   16.93   130   15.61   120    13.06    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   16.05   129   14.66   118    12.47    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   14.26   119   12.96   108    11.99    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   17.36   151   14.29   125    11.47    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00   11.21   111    8.26    82    10.07    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    8.34   129    5.43    84     6.46     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    9.18   179    3.88    75     5.14     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   16.49   129   13.47   105    12.80    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   16.17   127    8.06    63    12.74    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   18.91   136    9.00    65    13.92    13.95

 

Next Report: Friday, September 29