October 4, 2017
Summary: The upper level low which 24 hours ago was centered in northern California has scooted northeastward into Idaho. This will keep the northwest flow over central California going, so even though temperatures will warm a few degrees today, the warming trend will be slow. The freezing level overnight over Oakland was just 8,600 feet. Down the coast at Vandenberg, the freezing level was 13,500 feet, indicating the coolest air aloft remains over the northern half of the state.
The surface flow will become off shore as high pressure at the surface begins to take shape over Nevada beginning Thursday. In the meantime, at the upper levels of the atmosphere, high pressure will slowly build eastward from the eastern Pacific. This will begin to drive temperatures to above average beginning Friday and temperatures will remain that way through at least Sunday.
A new trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest and possibly northern California early next week, allowing another push of marine air into the valley and pushing temperatures down closer to seasonal values. Of interest also is one model is showing the development of a tropical storm south of Baja with the remnants possibly moving into southern California about mid month. This is the first time this has shown up on any model and other models say no way, but in any case, this far out, the error factor is high. Nevertheless, we’ll see if any trends develop.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
Madera 79/43/84/47/87 | Reedley 80/44/83/46/87 | Dinuba 79/43/83/46/86 | |
Porterville 80/44/84/47/88 | Lindsay 80/43/84/47/88 | Delano 80/47/83/49/88 | |
Bakersfield 80/54/83/57/89 | Arvin 79/49/83/52/90 | Taft 80/55/83/58/89 | |
Lamont 80/50/83/55/89 | Pixley 79/44/84/47/88 | Tulare 79/43/83/46/87 | |
Woodlake 79/44/84/47/87 | Hanford 80/45/84/48/88 | Orosi 79/43/83/46/87 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/89 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 54/88 |
Monday
Mostly clear 55/89 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 50/85 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 49/86 |
Two Week Outlook: October 11 through October 17: This model is indicating a low pressure system will be over the interior west with a possible off shore flow over interior California. This pattern always results in dry weather with at least marginally above average temperatures.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday and variable in nature.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today:. Visalia, Upper 30s to the mid 40s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/90% Bakersfield, 20%/55%
Actual Humidity October 2, 2017: Delano, 69%/24%, Porterville, 78%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 2, 2017: Stratford 1.47, Parlier 1.12, Blackwell 1.40, Lindcove 1.19, Arvin 1.39, Orange Cove 1.35, Porterville 1.14, Delano 1.16., Madera Two 1.13 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 71, Blackwell 75, Lindcove 71, Arvin 78, Orange Cove 71, Porterville 75, Delano 70, Madera Two 74
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 65.3 -3.8
Record Temperatures: 101/41. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2145, +547 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 2, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.02. Month to Date: .00
Since October 2, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.01, Month to Date: .00,
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 6:37 Hours of Daylight: 11:42
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 80 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 74 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 81 / 57 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 75 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
24 hours Season % Last year % Average Ave for year
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.08 200 0.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.04 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.02 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.01 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.03 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.03 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, October 5