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Forecast

October 7 report

October 7, 2017

Summary:  Currently, an area of low pressure is moving into the Pacific Northwest.  This system will eventually move into the Great Basin, generating a strong off shore flow.  The freezing level has come up overnight and is currently 15,500 feet.  The marine layer along the coast is almost nonexistent with a depth of just 200 feet.  As upper level high pressure continues to build eastward today, temperatures will peak in the upper 80s to near 90.

 

That trough I alluded to will begin to cause temperatures to come down close to seasonal average Sunday and Monday.  By Wednesday and Thursday, a deeper trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  A major cooling trend will begin Wednesday and by Friday, if all goes as planned, we will see temperatures in the lower 70s along with breezy conditions at times.

 

All of the models indicate this will be a dry event for central California with precipitation confined to the Pacific Northwest and possibly far northern California.

 

After the weekend, models continue to show a trough of low pressure over the west and off shore.  This should keep temperatures below average, but with dry conditions.

 

Forecast: Occasional high clouds this morning.  Mostly clear this afternoon through Tuesday.  Mostly clear Wednesday and mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 89/49/83/46/84 Reedley 89/49/83/46/84 Dinuba 88/48/83/47/83
Porterville 90/51/84/48/84 Lindsay 90/49/85/47/85 Delano 90/53/84/49/84
Bakersfield 89/59/85/57/86 Arvin 91/60/86/54/89 Taft 90/63/85/61/86
Lamont 91/57/85/55/87 Pixley 89/51/85/48/85 Tulare 89/49/84/46/85
Woodlake 90/51/84/47/85 Hanford 89/52/84/46/84 Orosi 89/52/84/57/84

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

49/85

Wednesday

Mostly clear

48/81

Thursday

Mostly clear

45/79

Friday

Mostly clear

44/74

Saturday

Mostly clear

43/72

 

Two Week Outlook: October 14 through October 20:  A trough of low pressure is the more predominant feature for this time frame.  The chance of rain remains very low, however this pattern will result in generally below average temperatures.

 

October:  The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest.  The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures.  Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.

 

October, November, December:  Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California.  Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today with periods of near calm conditions through tonight.  Winds Sunday and Monday along the west side will increase to 10 to 20 MPH with possible gusts to 30 MPH.  Elsewhere, winds will be generally in the 5 to 15 MPH range.  It’s possible some downslope winds near the foothills in Kern County could reach the valley floor.  That’s always a tricky call, but the southeast corner of the valley floor would be at greatest risk.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Bakersfield,  Mid to upper 30s

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 15%/90%  Bakersfield, 15%/45%

Actual Humidity October 5, 2017: Delano, 91%/20%, Porterville, 88%/18%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 5, 2017: Stratford 1.40, Parlier 1.07, Blackwell 1.34, Lindcove 1.12, Arvin 1.31, Orange Cove 1.27, Porterville 1.08, Delano 1.13., Madera Two 1.09 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 70, Blackwell 73, Lindcove 70, Arvin 76, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 73, Delano 68, Madera Two 72

 

Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.4 -6.0

Record Temperatures: 99/37  Average Temperatures: 84/54

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2145, +535 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 5, 2017  Fresno: .00 season. or -.06.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 5, 2017   Bakersfield:  .00, or -.02,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:00am  Sunset: 6:33pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:36

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  84 /  47 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  85 /  50 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  86 /  43 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /   M /  48 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  86 /  52 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  84 /  48 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1655 /  85 /  51 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  86 /  49 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  82 /  59 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  84 /  51 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:

24 hours  Season   %  Last year %    Average  Ave for year

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    0.08    89     0.09    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.08    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.05    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.04    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.07    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.03    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.03     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.06     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.08    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.07    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.06    13.95

 

Next Report: Monday, October 9