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Forecast

October 10, 2017

October 10, 2017

Summary:  The winds that tore through Kern County yesterday dried out the air to the point where, as of 6:00am, Bakersfield had a dew point of 13 with a relative humidity of 12%.  The dry air will continue for the remainder of the day with dew points beginning to recover tonight and Wednesday.

 

The off shore flow is still in place, but has weakened a great deal.  A switch in the pattern will occur late tonight and Wednesday as a trough of low pressure moves through the Pacific Northwest and northern  California.  The first phase of a cooling trend will take place Wednesday as the marine layer deepens rapidly and surges inland.  A dry cold front will move through Thursday, reinforcing the relatively cool air mass on the valley floor.

 

It will be Sunday before weak upper level high pressure begins to build in from the west.  Temperatures by Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s and will remain in that range for several days.

 

The medium range models continue to indicate a trough of low pressure will be along the west coast in one way, shape, or form.  This should maintain near to somewhat below average temperatures in the longer term.  Models also indicate any precipitation will be from northern California northward with central and southern California remaining dry.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear through Friday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Friday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera  85/45/80/41/75 Reedley 86/46/80/42/74 Dinuba 84/44/80/40/75
Porterville 88/45/81/41/75 Lindsay 86/45/80/41/74 Delano 88/49/80/42/75
Bakersfield 89/56/80/52/74 Arvin 91/54/81/49/76 Taft 88/58/81/53/74
Lamont 91/52/81/48/74 Pixley 86/47/80/42/75 Tulare 84/45/80/40/73
Woodlake 86/45/80/41/74 Hanford 87/46/79/41/75 Orosi 86/45/80/41/74

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

41/75

Saturday

Mostly clear

42/78

Sunday

Mostly clear

45/82

Monday

Mostly clear

46/83

Tuesday

Mostly clear

50/84

 

Two Week Outlook: October 16 through October 27:  This model indicates a trough of low pressure will dominate much of the western United States with below average temperatures.  This model also indicates the strong possibility of showers over northern California spreading as far south as Fresno County.  I don’t want to add that to the forecast just yet, but it does look pretty on maps.  At the very least, it will result in a continuation of autumn-like conditions.

 

October:  The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest.  The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures.  Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.

 

October, November, December:  Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California.  Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through tonight then will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH Wednesday with gusts to near 25 MPH possible along the west side.  Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger  gusts, decreasing Thursday night with light winds Friday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Low to mid 30s.  Bakersfield,  Mid 20s to the lower 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 15%/90%  Bakersfield, 10%/55%

Actual Humidity October 8, 2017: Delano, 93%/25%, Porterville, 92%/20%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 90%.

 

ET Rates over the Past Seven Days October 8, 2017: Stratford 1.32, Parlier 1.01, Blackwell 1.26, Lindcove 1.08, Arvin 1.26, Orange Cove 1.19, Porterville 1.03, Delano 1.08., Madera Two 1.02 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 69, Blackwell 72, Lindcove 69, Arvin 75, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 72, Delano 66, Madera Two 71

 

Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.6 -4.3

Record Temperatures: 98/39. Average Temperatures: 83/53

Cooling degree Days This Season: 2148, +528 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 8, 2017  Fresno: .00 season. or -.09.  Month to Date: .00

Since October 8, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .00, or -.04,  Month to Date: .00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:02 am  Sunset: 6:34 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:31

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  81 /  44 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  81 /  45 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  80 /  50 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  84 /  45 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /   M /  49 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  88 /  56 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  82 /  48 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1653 /  84 /  52 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  83 /  50 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1655 /  85 /  50 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  79 /  49 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.00     0    0.08    62     0.13    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.13    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.09    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.08    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.11    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.05    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.05     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.08     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.00     0       T     0     0.12    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.11    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.00     0    0.00     0     0.09    13.95

 

Next Report: Wednesday, October 11