October 12, 2017
Summary: Temperatures are anywhere from 5 to 8 degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. This is all being caused by low pressure which yesterday moved into the Pacific Northwest and has moved into the northern Rockies. Another low is digging from north to south into the Pacific Northwest. It will arrive late tonight and Friday with a trough extending down into northern and central California.
The air mass over northern and central California is very dry with dew points on the valley floor currently ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s. With temperatures only rising into the mid 70s this afternoon and, with the very low dewpoints, many locations tonight will drop into the mid to upper 30s. it would not be a total shock to me to see a riverbottom or similar location approach the freezing mark both Friday and Saturday mornings.
The trough will begin to move eastward Friday night, allowing fairly weak upper level high pressure to build northward from Mexico. Also, a surface high will pop up over the Great Basin, generating yet another off shore flow which will result in a warming trend, moving temperatures back into the low to mid 80s, or marginally above average.
By Wednesday of next week, a new trough of low pressure will dig southward well into northern and central California. On paper, there’s a reasonable chance of showers over northern California but as of this juncture, no precipitation is expected with the possible exception of the high Sierra.
Models going out further are still pointing to dry conditions with the main storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Tuesday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/38/76/38/76 | Reedley 75/38/76/37/76 | Dinuba 74/36/77/37/75 | |
| Porterville 75/38/77/38/77 | Lindsay 75/36/76/37/76 | Delano 76/41/77/41/77 | |
| Bakersfield 76/47/75/46/77 | Arvin 77/42/77/40/77 | Taft 76/46/75/47/77 | |
| Lamont 77/40/75/41/76 | Pixley 74/38/76/37/77 | Tulare 74/37/75/37/76 | |
| Woodlake 75/37/75/38/76 | Hanford 75/37/77/36/76 | Orosi 75/37/76/38/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 45/82 |
Monday
Mostly clear 48/86 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 51/86 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy, 44/78 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 45/76 |
Two Week Outlook: October 19 through October 25: The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues. Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue. With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.
October: The month of October, according to the latest models, will have generally or at least marginally above average temperatures as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest. The Pacific Northwest will have above average precipitation and above average temperatures. Central California will be squeezed between these two systems, so it appears we’ll have an equal chance of rain for the month, which shouldn’t range too far from average.
October, November, December: Looking out to October through December, models show marginally above average temperatures for central and southern California. Models also indicate precipitation will be near average with the main storm track moving through the Pacific Northwest.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest through this evening at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds later tonight through Sunday will be generally in the 5 to 10 MPH range with occasional near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, Low to mid 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 20%/80% Bakersfield, 20%/50%
Actual Humidity October 10, 2017: Delano, 73%/14%, Porterville, 88%/10%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 10, 2017: Stratford 1.24, Parlier .98, Blackwell 1.23, Lindcove 1.05, Arvin 1.41, Orange Cove 1.16, Porterville 1.00, Delano 1.03., Madera Two .99 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 68, Blackwell 72, Lindcove 68, Arvin 75, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 71, Delano 66, Madera Two 72
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.8 -3.8
Record Temperatures: 97/38. Average Temperatures: 82/53
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2148, +522 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 10, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.12. Month to Date: .00
Since October 10, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.05, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, ,
Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:04 am Sunset: 6:26 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:25
Yesterday’s Weather
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 78 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 85 / 52 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 54 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 81 / 48 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 78 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 74 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.08 47 0.17 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.16 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.12 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.13 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.07 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.06 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.10 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.14 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.12 13.95
Next Report: Friday, October 13