October 20, 2017
Summary: A cold front has moved rapidly down the valley during the predawn hours and is now approaching the Kern County mountains. Light showers have fallen along the frontal band itself, but are largely moving into the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains. Clearing is quickly occurring from Fresno County north and that clearing will spread southward this morning, although upsloping against the mountain ranges should mean mostly cloudy conditions in portions of Kern and southeastern Tulare Counties possibly into Saturday morning. Gusty northwest winds have also been occurring along the front, generally between 20 and 30 MPH. these winds will diminish as the front moves eastward.
Temperatures will plummet today as colder air dives southeastward out of the northwest. In fact, temperatures will probably not reach the 70 degree mark at most locations today and Saturday as a cool northwest flow aloft continues.
Rainfall amounts so far have ranged from trace amounts in Kern County to about a tenth of an inch or so in Madera and Fresno Counties. This dramatic shift in the pattern will not last long as strong upper level high pressure will build northward and eastward behind the trough over the weekend. By Sunday, temperatures will be approaching seasonal values again with warm afternoons next week as strong upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific and California.
A minor cooling trend will occur on Thursday of next week as a low pressure system moves into the northern Rockies and weakens the high. However, there’s currently no evidence of precipitation as upper level high pressure will keep the storm track well north more than likely through next weekend.
Temperatures, especially during the early part of next week, will rise about 10 to 15 degrees above average, again with marginally cooler weather towards the end of the week.
Forecast: A chance of light showers, mainly in Kern County, over the next few hours. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies today with the possible exception of Kern County and southeast Tulare County which may remain mostly cloudy through Saturday morning with clearing skies elsewhere. Mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday with a warming trend. Mostly clear skies will continue Monday night through Friday with above average daytime highs.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/40/68/41/77 | Reedley 67/41/68/41/76 | Dinuba 68/40/69/41/75 | |
| Porterville 67/42/68/43/76 | Lindsay 68/40/68/41/75 | Delano 68/44/69/44/76 | |
| Bakersfield 67/48/69/49/76 | Arvin 66/47/68/47/77 | Taft 68/51/68/52/76 | |
| Lamont 67/47/68/47/77 | Pixley 68/43/69/43/76 | Tulare 67/40/69/41/75 | |
| Woodlake 68/42/69/42/75 | Hanford 69/40/69/42/77 | Orosi 68/40/69/41/76 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly clear 47/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 51/86 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 53/87 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Friday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Two Week Outlook: October 25 through October 31: The storm track will mostly remain in the Pacific Northwest as a zonal, or westerly, flow continues. Most of California will be south of the active weather pattern, so dry conditions will continue. With a flat zone of high pressure above us, temperatures will warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, especially this morning, with gusts over 30 MPH possible, mainly along the west side. Winds will diminish tonight to around 5 to 10 MPH after midnight. Winds Saturday through Monday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: The light showers that occurred before dawn have now moved into the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains with the exception of the extreme south valley which is still experiencing a few sprinkles. The rain will end in all areas over the next couple of hours with the possible exception of the extreme south valley which could experience some light drizzle or very light rain due to uploping against the mountains. Dry weather will prevail later this morning and on through the weekend and will continue for all of next week.
A few rainfall amounts as of 5:00am were: Fresno .08, Madera .08, Orange Cove .06, Hanford .02, Porterville .01, and Visalia .07. Isolated locations may have exceeded a tenth as light rain was still occurring when these readings were recorded.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Upper 30s to the mid 40s. Bakersfield, Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 35%/95% Bakersfield, 35%/75%
Actual Humidity October 18, 2017: Delano, 92%/18%, Porterville, 74%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 50% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 18, 2017: Stratford 1.10, Parlier .81, Blackwell 1.06, Lindcove .85, Arvin 1.03, Orange Cove .97, Porterville .81, Delano .86., Madera Two .76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 67, Blackwell 70, Lindcove 67, Arvin 71, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 65, Madera Two 68
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.0 -3.0
Record Temperatures: 92/30. Average Temperatures: 78/49
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2154, +516 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 18, 2017 Fresno: .00 season. or -.27. Month to Date: .00
Since October 18, 2017, Bakersfield: .00, or -.12, Month to Date: .00
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 6:15 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:05
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 80 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 82 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 81 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1657 / 85 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 81 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 1.02 276 0.37 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.23 70 0.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.21 68 0.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.04 12 0.33 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.01 3 0.29 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.19 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.05 38 0.13 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.00 0 0.16 55 0.29 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 T 0 0.15 52 0.29 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 T 0 0.21 81 0.26 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, October 21