October 23, 2017
Summary: Temperatures at most locations are running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Over the mountain areas, the warming is more significant. For example, Sandberg is 8 degrees warmer and Blue Canyon’s temperature is up by 15. We have the ideal fall pattern for a significant warm up as upper level high pressure is already building firmly into California from the southwest and surface high pressure covers the Great Basin. Barometric pressure is considerably lower off the California coast than they are over the interior west. This is generating a robust off shore flow.
The temperature at the Avalon Air Port, which is on an island off the southern California coast, was 82 degrees at 6:00am.
The off shore flow will peak Tuesday then begin to wane, leaving just strong upper level high pressure to be the dominant player this week. Temperatures on the valley floor today will move well into the 80s with possibly near 90 degree weather in the warm spots Tuesday and Wednesday as downslope heating occurs due to that off shore flow.
Readings Thursday and Friday will fall back but only marginally as the high weakens. By Sunday and Monday of next week, systems moving through the northwest will weaken the high a tad, lowering temperatures. However, even so, it looks like temperatures will remain at least somewhat above average.
Models show dry weather through the end of the month with generally above average temperatures continuing in the medium term.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Monday.
Short Term:
Madera 82/48/87/50/87 | Reedley 82/49/87/49/87 | Dinuba 82/48/86/49/88 | |
Porterville 84/50/88/51/88 | Lindsay 83/48/88/50/89 | Delano 84/52/88/53/89 | |
Bakersfield 86/57/91/60/92 | Arvin 88/55/88/56/92 | Taft 84/62/91/63/91 | |
Lamont 87/54/91/57/92 | Pixley 84/51/88/52/88 | Tulare 83/49/87/51/87 | |
Woodlake 82/49/87/51/87 | Hanford 83/50/88/53/88 | Orosi 83/50/87/52/87 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Thursday
Mostly clear 54/88 |
Friday
Mostly clear 55/87 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 54/85 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 54/83 |
Monday
Mostly clear 52/82 |
Two Week Outlook: October 30 through November 5: Temperatures will more than likely remain at least marginally above average during this period. Interestingly enough, a low pressure system is pictured over California sometime during this period for a small chance of showers.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, Mid to upper 30s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/90% Bakersfield, 30%/65%
Actual Humidity October 21, 2017: Delano, 88%/36%, Porterville, 95%/17%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 21, 2017: Stratford .98, Parlier .77, Blackwell .98, Lindcove .78, Arvin .92, Orange Cove .92, Porterville .73, Delano .82., Madera Two .72. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 66, Blackwell 70, Lindcove 67, Arvin 71, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 64, Madera Two 67
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.6 -2.9
Record Temperatures: 92/35. Average Temperatures: 77/49
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2154, +513 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 21, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.25. Month to Date: .09
Since October 21, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.15, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:14 am Sunset: 6:12 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:58
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 74 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 75 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 75 / 49 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 74 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 74 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 76 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 71 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 26 1.02 222 0.46 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 30 0.23 57 0.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 38 0.21 54 0.39 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 19 0.04 10 0.42 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 25 0.01 3 0.36 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 24 T 0 0.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.05 31 0.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.19 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.13 37 0.16 46 0.35 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.08 23 0.15 43 0.35 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 9 0.21 66 0.32 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, October 24