October 25, 2017
Summary: The strong off shore flow of the past few days is weakening now and winds at most locations over the Kern County mountains and southern California have dropped off. Even so, a massive upper high covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and the western one-third of the U.S. the freezing level this morning over Vandenberg was 15,600 feet, which is more or less a summer type reading. The high will continue to drive temperatures well above average through Saturday. In fact, hottest locations will approach record territory, but will probably fall just short.
By Sunday and Monday, the high will begin to flatten out in response to a system moving into the Pacific Northwest. Models vary considerably on the placement of various features for Monday and Tuesday. Some place an upper low off the central or southern California coast but too far off shore to threaten precipitation. It appears dry weather will, though, continue through early November unless that upper low shifts a bit eastward. For now we’ll go with a dry forecast with cooler conditions early next week as a stronger on shore flow develops and the upper high weakens.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 88/53/88/52/87 | Reedley 89/52/89/51/88 | Dinuba 88/51/87/50/87 | |
| Porterville 90/53/89/52/87 | Lindsay 90/52/90/51/88 | Delano 91/55/89/55/88 | |
| Bakersfield 92/61/91/60/89 | Arvin 93/58/91/57/89 | Taft 90/66/90/62/88 | |
| Lamont 92/58/90/56/89 | Pixley 90/54/89/53/87 | Tulare 88/53/88/52/86 | |
| Woodlake 90/54/89/53/87 | Hanford 91/53/89/53/88 | Orosi 90/54/89/53/87 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Mostly clear 53/86 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 52/83 |
Monday
Mostly clear 48/78 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 46/77 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 46/76 |
Two Week Outlook: November 1 through November 7: The first week in November has a low confidence forecast as models are showing a trough of low pressure either over the west or over the interior west. This means there will be a low chance of rain with temperatures near to even marginally below average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry conditions indefinitely.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/90% Bakersfield, 20%/55%
Actual Humidity October 23, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 93%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 23, 2017: Stratford .95, Parlier .76, Blackwell .92, Lindcove .75, Arvin .86, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .69, Delano .NA., Madera Two .69. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove 66, Arvin 70, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 68, Delano 64, Madera Two 66
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.2 -2.8
Record Temperatures: 95/36. Average Temperatures: 76/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2154, +513 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 23, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.30. Month to Date: .09
Since October 23, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.17, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:16 am Sunset: 6:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 85 / 50 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 86 / 54 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 86 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 89 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 51 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 86 / 60 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 86 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 23 1.05 198 0.53 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 27 0.23 51 0.45 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 33 0.25 54 0.46 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 16 0.06 12 0.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 22 0.04 10 0.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 21 T 0 0.28 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.05 26 0.19 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.21 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.13 33 0.16 41 0.39 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.08 20 0.15 37 0.40 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 8 0.21 57 0.37 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, October 26