October 26, 2017
Summary: A strong ridge of upper level high pressure remains over and off the west coast. There is a strong system moving through the Rockies combined with a benign weak upper low well off the central coast. This combo will weaken the high a bit, lowering temperatures a few degrees through Saturday, but remaining about 8 to 12 degree above average. That low off shore will move eastward probably through southern California Monday. This system does not pose any threat of precipitation, but will lower temperatures possibly down to seasonal averages Monday through Wednesday of next week. Another trough of low pressure will move through central California Wednesday, but it, too, will be dry . Like its predecessor, it will lower temperatures across the region.
Models for Friday and Saturday of next week vary, but there’s a hint a much stronger trough from the Gulf of Alaska will move through. Some models do indicate it will be robust enough to move rain into central California. This is not yet a trend, but it certainly piqued my interest.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 87/51/87/50/85 | Reedley 88/52/87/50/86 | Dinuba 87/50/88/50/85 | |
| Porterville 90/52/88/50/86 | Lindsay 90/51/88/50/86 | Delano 90/55/88/53/86 | |
| Bakersfield 91/61/89/56/87 | Arvin 92/58/89/55/87 | Taft 90/65/89/60/87 | |
| Lamont 91/59/89/55/88 | Pixley 89/53/88/52/86 | Tulare 87/52/88/50/86 | |
| Woodlake 89/53/88/51/86 | Hanford 89/53/88/51/86 | Orosi 88/53/87/52/86 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Mostly clear 51/85 |
Monday
Mostly clear 48/80 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 50/80 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 47/78 |
Two Week Outlook: November 2 through November 8: This model is leaning towards a possibly significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast. This would pose a chance of rain during this time frame and cool temperatures down to at least marginally below average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Thursday night of next week. There is a lot of disagreement on various models this morning on the pattern for next Friday and Saturday. There is a hint, though, of a significant area of low pressure diving southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California. If there’s any credence to this, a better than even chance of precipitation would exist, especially moving into next Saturday and possibly Sunday. For now, with the very chancy forecast, no clear trend exists.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Visalia, low to mid 50s. Bakersfield, Mid to upper 40s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 30%/90% Bakersfield, 20%/55%
Actual Humidity October 24, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 24, 2017: Stratford .94, Parlier .75, Blackwell .91, Lindcove .75, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .85, Porterville .69, Delano .NA., Madera Two .71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove 66, Arvin 70, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 68, Delano 64, Madera Two 66
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.5 -2.4
Record Temperatures: 91/36. Average Temperatures: 75/48
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2157, +519 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 24, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.32. Month to Date: .09
Since October 24, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.19, Month to Date: .T, Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:17 am Sunset: 6:08 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:54
Yesterday’s Weather:
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 89 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 91 / 48 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 91 / 58 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 90 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 94 / 54 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 91 / 51 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 90 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 87 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
24 hour Season % Last year % Average Yearly Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 21 1.09 195 0.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 25 0.23 48 0.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 30 0.25 50 0.50 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 15 0.06 11 0.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 20 0.04 9 0.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 19 T 0 0.31 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.05 25 0.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 T 0 0.23 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.13 32 0.16 39 0.41 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.08 19 0.15 35 0.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 8 0.21 52 0.40 13.95
Next Report: Friday, October 27