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Forecast

October 28, 2017 report

October 28, 2017

Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered right over northern California this morning.  Weak surface high pressure is prevalent over the Great Basin, resulting in a weak off shore flow.  In the meantime, there is a low pressure system off the southern California coast which will move inland to our south Sunday.  A trough of low pressure will dig rapidly southward along the coast Monday through Tuesday, eventually forming a new low off the extreme southern California coast.  All of the models point to dry weather with this system, although we may see partly cloudy skies from time to time along with cooler conditions.

 

As we head into the late part of the work week, and especially Saturday, it appears the most significant system of the fall season to date will affect northern and central California.  The cut off line for the precipitation looks to be the Kern County mountains, so the entire valley will have an increasing chance of rain along with occasionally breezy weather and much cooler temperatures.  In fact, temperatures Saturday will likely only warm into the mid 60s.

 

Medium range models continue, in one way, shape, or form, to show a trough of low pressure along the west coast.  This would favor storms moving into central and northern California from time to time as we move into November, which is really the beginning of the rainfall season anyway.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear with occasional high clouds through Sunday.  Mostly clear to possibly partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday night.  Mostly clear Wednesday through Thursday night.  Increasing cloudiness by late Friday with an increasing chance of rain late Friday night and Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 86/51/85/50/80 Reedley 87/52/86/51/81 Dinuba 86/50/86/49/79
Porterville 88/52/87/50/80 Lindsay 87/51/86/49/79 Delano 88/55/86/52/81
Bakersfield 88/56/86/55/81 Arvin 90/55/87/54/82 Taft 88/64/86/62/81
Lamont 89/56/86/54/82 Pixley 87/53/86/51/80 Tulare 86/51/85/49/79
Woodlake 87/52/86/50/79 Hanford 88/53/86/51/80 Orosi 87/52/86/49/79

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

47/73

Wednesday

Mostly clear

46/76

Thursday

Mostly clear

46/76

Friday

Increasing clouds

50/72

Saturday

Chance of rain

48/67

 

Two Week Outlook: November 3 through November 9:  This model is leaning towards a possibly significant trough of low pressure over and along the west coast.  This would pose a chance of rain during this time frame and cool temperatures down to at least marginally below average.

 

November:  November is when the traditional rainfall season begins.  For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California.  This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.

 

November, December, January:  It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies.  Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest.  There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average. 

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions, especially during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain: It appears the next chance of rain for the valley will be Saturday.  A significant trough of low pressure will dig southward over and along the west coast, spreading precipitation over northern California with increasing chance of rain throughout the valley as the trough moves through.  The chance of precipitation is certainly there for the following week as the medium range outlook continues to indicate dominate low pressure over and along the west coast.  Timing is difficult to determine, this far out, so we’ll just call for a chance of precipitation during this time frame.

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Visalia, low to mid 50s.  Bakersfield, Mid to upper 40s

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 30%/95%  Bakersfield, 25%/65%

Actual Humidity October 26, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 93%/20%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 100%, Bakersfield: Today 100% tomorrow 100%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 26, 2017: Stratford .91, Parlier .75, Blackwell .89, Lindcove .76, Arvin .84, Orange Cove .86, Porterville .68, Delano .NA., Madera Two .71.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove 66, Arvin 70, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 67, Delano 64, Madera Two 66

 

Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 62.8 -1.9

Record Temperatures: 89/35. Average Temperatures: 75/47

Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2162, +521 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since October 26, 2017  Fresno: .09 season. or -.35.  Month to Date: .09

Since October 26, 2017,  Bakersfield:  T, or -.20,  Month to Date: .T

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:18 am  Sunset: 6:07 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:51

 

Next Report: Monday, October 30