October 31, 2017
Summary: Another fast moving but dry trough of low pressure is dropping southward into northern California this morning and will move through central California later this afternoon and evening. There may be some cloud cover, but skies overall should be mostly clear. This will maintain marginally below average temperatures today but with weak upper level high pressure taking over Wednesday and Wednesday night, temperatures should be just about average for this time of year.
Models continue to depict a big winter like change in our weather beginning over northern California Friday and central and southern California Saturday through about Monday morning. Some of these models are picking up on the possibility of a split flow developing generally from west to east into California Saturday through Sunday. If this occurs, most of the precipitation will move into northern or southern California with central California being in a dry slot. However, this is by no means a given as some models are also showing tropical moisture becoming entrained into this westerly flow, possibly bringing significant amounts of rain to central California.
Models are also suggesting two-feet plus of snow will fall over the northern Sierra Nevada, and possibly the central portion of the mountain range, over the weekend. For now, it appears most of the shower activity should be over by Monday morning when patchy fog will be added to the forecast.
Medium range models for the second day in a row show another system moving through about Wednesday of next week, possibly resulting in more rain for the valley.
Forecast: Mostly clear to possibly partly cloudy through early Wednesday. Mostly clear later Wednesday through Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday. increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of showers. Rain at times Saturday through Sunday night. Becoming partly cloudy Monday through Tuesday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 66/41/70/43/68 | Reedley 68/42/72/43/67 | Dinuba 67/41/69/43/68 | |
| Porterville 69/42/70/44/69 | Lindsay 69/41/71/44/69 | Delano 69/45/71/46/79 | |
| Bakersfield 70/48/73/51/70 | Arvin 72/47/73/48/72 | Taft 70/57/73/55/72 | |
| Lamont 71/47/73/49/72 | Pixley 69/43/70/44/68 | Tulare 68/42/70/44/67 | |
| Woodlake 68/41/70/44/67 | Hanford 68/42/71/44/69 | Orosi 68/42/70/44/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 48/71 |
Saturday
Periods of rain 47/70 |
Sunday
Rain likely 51/67 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 40/65 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 44/70 |
Two Week Outlook: November 6 through November 12: This model shows the rain line pulling further north with rain possible over northern California during this time frame. There will be a chance of precip over central California, but it will ultimately depend on where the rain line ends up. Most of the weather will originate from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will run below average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday night with local gusts to 20 MPH today and tonight, mainly along the west side. Winds Friday through Sunday will be locally gusty at times.
Rain: The pattern for Friday through Sunday night is quite complex. A well developed storm will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest, possibly into northern California as early as Friday, then it will slowly inch its way southward Saturday and Sunday. Models are picking up on the possibility of a split flow which would reduce the chance for significant precipitation in the valley, however, models are also indicating the possibility of a tropical connection which would change the whole scenario. This would result in significant rain for the valley and possibly heavy snow in the high Sierra. The weather will dry out by early Monday morning with dry weather Monday and Tuesday. Another possibly well developed trough may drop into our region about midweek for the possibility of more rain.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 50%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/85%
Actual Humidity October 29, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 94%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 29, 2017: Stratford .84, Parlier .77, Blackwell .85, Lindcove .80, Arvin .96, Orange Cove .90, Porterville .72, Delano .NA., Madera Two .66. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 67, Blackwell .69, Lindcove, .67, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 64, Madera Two 67
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.6 -0.4
Record Temperatures: 91/27. Average Temperatures: 73/45
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2177, +536 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 29, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.47. Month to Date: .09
Since October 29, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.26, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, , Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:22 am Sunset: 6:03 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:44
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 82 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 49 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 86 / 55 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1659 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 84 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 16 2.39 310 0.77 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 19 2.05 320 0.64 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 20 1.43 191 0.75 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 10 0.62 77 0.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 15 0.67 112 0.60 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 13 0.64 136 0.47 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.24 86 0.28 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 31 0.29 5.18
SALINAS T 0.13 24 1.61 293 0.55 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.08 14 1.39 236 0.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 5 1.28 229 0.56 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, November 1