November 1, 2017
Summary: Welcome to the official start of the frost season. An interesting phenomenon is occurring as the marine layer along the southern California coast is deep enough to actually spread over the Tehachapi Mountains then into the southwest portion of Kern County on the valley floor. The remainder of the area is generally clear this morning. Temporarily, a weak ridge of upper level high pressure is just off shore and will maintain typical early November weather in our region. By late Thursday, a cold low with plenty of dynamics will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest, affecting northern California on Friday with even a small chance of showers over the valley Friday night.
Models are really having a difficult time discerning the potential rainfall for central California. There will be a new low developing off shore Saturday. How close to the coastline it will make it will affect possible precipitation as this system could pick up subtropical moisture and move it in from the west/southwest. If this low is too far off shore, the chance of significant precip would be reduced.
With a strong west/southwest flow aloft, a rain shadow will be created along the west side, especially Saturday and Saturday night. As the cold front moves down the valley Sunday, widespread precip will be possible lasting potentially into Monday. The colder air mass during the second half of the weekend and early next week will lower snow levels down to 5,000 to 6,000 feet.
Monday night through early Wednesday look dry as a weak ridge will follow the Sunday/Monday event. Models continue to move a low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest and northern California late Wednesday through Thursday. It could possibly bring more rain to central California.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. Increasing cloudiness Friday with a small chance of scattered showers late Friday and Friday night. Look for an increasing chance of showers Saturday and Saturday night with periods of rain Sunday through Monday. Mostly cloudy Monday night. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of rain Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 69/42/67/42/65 | Reedley 71/41/67/43/66 | Dinuba 69/40/67/42/65 | |
| Porterville 71/42/67/45/66 | Lindsay 70/42/66/44/66 | Delano 71/46/67/48/65 | |
| Bakersfield 71/50/68/51/68 | Arvin 72/48/67/48/67 | Taft 70/56/67/55/69 | |
| Lamont 71/47/67/49/69 | Pixley 70/43/67/46/66 | Tulare 69/42/67/44/65 | |
| Woodlake 70/43/67/45/65 | Hanford 70/43/67/45/65 | Orosi 71/42/68/46/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Showers likely 51/68 |
Sunday
Periods of rain 52/65 |
Monday
Periods of rain 52/67 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 46/70 |
Wednesday
Increasing clouds 48/72 |
Two Week Outlook: November 7 through November 13: This model shows the rain line pulling further north with rain possible over northern California during this time frame. There will be a chance of precip over central California, but it will ultimately depend on where the rain line ends up. Most of the weather will originate from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will run below average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds will be mainly out of the southeast Friday night and Saturday with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday night then a complex pattern will develop Friday and Friday night as a low drops southward from the Pacific Northwest and into northern California. By Saturday, the rain line will be creeping further and further south as a strong cold front begins to encroach on northern California, passing through central California probably sometime Sunday. Models are following different themes in the possibility of tapping into subtropical moisture. This pattern, if it occurs, typically forms a rain shadow along the west side but increases the chance of substantial amounts of rain on the east side of the valley north of Kern County. For now, rain appears likely Sunday, possibly lasting into Monday, as a cold, unstable air mass moves in aloft.
Rainfall amounts are tough to nail down at this point, but the potential for more than a half inch of rain is there for Sunday through Monday north of Kern County with perhaps a quarter of an inch over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return by Monday night, but models have been consistent in showing a new low moving in midweek.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/85%
Actual Humidity October 30, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 89%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 90% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 70% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 30, 2017: Stratford .82, Parlier .75, Blackwell .85, Lindcove .78, Arvin .95, Orange Cove .87, Porterville .70, Delano .NA., Madera Two .63. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 64, Parlier 68, Blackwell .70, Lindcove, .67, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 64, Madera Two 67
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.7 -0.1
Record Temperatures: 90/32. Average Temperatures: 73/45
Cooling Degree Days This Season: 2178, +537 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 30, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.51. Month to Date: .09
Since October 30, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.28, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:23 am Sunset: 6:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:41
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 67 / 49 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 66 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 68 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 68 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 65 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / 45 / M /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 64 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 15 2.39 291 0.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 18 2.05 301 0.68 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 19 1.43 177 0.81 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 9 0.62 70 0.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 14 0.67 106 0.63 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 12 0.64 128 0.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.24 80 0.30 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 30 0.30 5.18
SALINAS T 0.13 22 1.61 278 0.58 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 0.09 15 1.39 224 0.62 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 5 1.28 213 0.60 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, November 1/PM