November 2, 2017
Summary: Marine air is surging into southern and central California this morning. In fact, satellite imagery shows the cloud deck from this marine layer has reached 6,000 feet and is spilling over the Kern County mountains. It’s currently moving up the valley. Many locations at this time have a fairly low overcast based at near 5,000 feet which will break into mostly clear to partly cloudy skies this afternoon.
The overall pattern continues to change. A deepening low is situated near Vancouver Island this morning and is moving south/southeast. It will move into the Pacific Northwest this afternoon and tonight. Models show a significantly different overall picture of how all this is going to play out. It appears a cold front, a fairly weak one, will move through central California Saturday morning for an increasing chance of showers. However, models have really backed off on the potential amount of rain. It looks like a low pressure system well off the central coast will remain too far off shore to swing moisture into central California. Some models show the best dynamics and moisture feed will actually be in southern California Sunday and Monday.
Speaking of Sunday, another cold front associated with the low to our north will move through with, again, an increasing chance of showers. By Monday and Tuesday, that low off the central coast will begin to move inland through southern California. The chance of rainfall for central California will increase by Monday.
A weak ridge of upper level high pressure will begin to move in from the west for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Models do now show another trough moving through the area Thursday for a small chance of showers.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Variable cloudiness Friday and Friday night with a slight chance of showers. A chance of showers Saturday through Sunday with an increasing risk of showers Monday and Tuesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night with a slight chance of showers Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/45/66/46/65 | Reedley 66/46/66/46/65 | Dinuba 66/45/65/46/66 | |
| Porterville 67/47/67/45/65 | Lindsay 67/45/66/46/66 | Delano 67/48/66/49/65 | |
| Bakersfield 67/52/69/53/68 | Arvin 67/50/69/50/68 | Taft 67/55/66/54/68 | |
| Lamont 67/51/66/50/65 | Pixley 67/48/66/47/65 | Tulare 66/47/67/45/64 | |
| Woodlake 67/47/66/46/64 | Hanford 67/48/66/46/48 | Orosi 66/46/66/47/65 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Chance of showers 51/65 |
Monday
Showers likely 51/63 |
Tuesday
AM showers likely 48/69 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 48/71 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 45/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 8 through November 14: This model shows the rain line pulling further north with rain possible over northern California during this time frame. There will be a chance of precip over central California, but it will ultimately depend on where the rain line ends up. Most of the weather will originate from the Gulf of Alaska so temperatures will run below average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH today with periods of near calm conditions. Late tonight through Saturday, winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Wind Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts.
Rain: It’s possible we could see some light showers as early as Friday afternoon, however that chance is admittedly rather small due to the lack of subtropical moisture entrained in a system which will be moving into northern California. A weak cold front will move down the valley Saturday with a chance of showers, especially right along the cold front which should move through sometime Saturday morning. Yet another front will move through Sunday, increasing the chance of showers over the valley and possibly significant precipitation along the Sierra Nevada. On Monday and Tuesday, an upper low off the central coast will move through southern California and will become entrained into the low pressure system to our north. This seems to be our best chance at anything significant. However, models seem to be trending towards the bulk of this moisture moving inland just to our south over southern California. At this time, there is low confidence due to large differences in modeling information. Dry weather will return Tuesday night through Wednesday night. a slight chance of showers exists for Thursday as another trough moves in from the north/northwest. After Thursday night, it appears we’ll end up on the eastern flank of high pressure off shore, creating a dry pattern which should last through next weekend.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 50%/95% Bakersfield, 50%/85%
Actual Humidity October 31, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/49%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 30%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 30%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days October 31, 2017: Stratford .77, Parlier .71, Blackwell .79, Lindcove .71, Arvin .88, Orange Cove .82, Porterville .73, Delano NA., Madera Two .60. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 65, Parlier 68, Blackwell .70, Lindcove, .67, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 64, Madera Two 67
Mean Temperatures for September Month So Far: 63.4 -0.1
Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 73/45
Heating Degree Days This Season: 82, -23 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 31, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.54. Month to Date: .09
Since October 31, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.30, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Madera two, Alpaugh, Delano, Lindcove, Porterville, Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:24 am Sunset: 6:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1652 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 71 / 43 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 69 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 70 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.12 14 2.40 276 0.87 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.12 17 2.05 285 0.72 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 17 1.45 169 0.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 9 0.62 67 0.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.09 14 0.67 102 0.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 11 0.65 118 0.55 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.24 75 0.32 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 28 0.32 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.13 21 1.69 277 0.61 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.09 14 1.39 214 0.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 5 1.28 200 0.64 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, November 2/PM