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Forecast

November 3, 2017/pm report

November 3, 2017

Summary: A trough of low pressure and its associated cold front are currently moving slowly southward through northern California.  Doppler radar indicates showers are falling from mainly Sacramento northward, however it is possible light showers could spread as far south as  Fresno County later tonight with a chance of light showers spreading into the south valley Saturday afternoon and night.  a second cold front will move into central California Sunday.  On paper, this system appears to be disorganized with weak dynamics, but nevertheless the chance of light showers is there through Sunday night.  We must, though, emphasize the word “chance”.  All of the cold air with this system is mainly bottled up in the Pacific Northwest where light snow has been reported today in places like Seattle.  I do not anticipate this cold air mass will move into California, although overnight lows will trend cooler Tuesday through Thursday of next week, mainly due to a decrease in cloud cover.

 

The Monday through Wednesday night time frame will be dry as California ends up on the extreme eastern side of high pressure off shore.  Some of the models this afternoon have pushed back the timing of a storm system dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest about Thursday.  Current thinking is that this could occur Thursday night and Friday.  models will no doubt waffle back and forth in the timing of this system and how far south any precipitation may spread.  This far out, most of the precip appears to be from Fresno County north with lesser chances further south.

 

Forecast:  Partly to mostly cloudy tonight with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north.  A chance of light showers Saturday through Saturday night with the best chance occurring during the afternoon through nighttime hours.  A smaller chance of light showers Sunday and Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County northward.  Becoming mostly to partly cloudy Monday into Tuesday morning.  Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.  mostly cloudy Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County northward.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 51/65/50/63 Reedley 52/66/50/62 Dinuba 52/65/49/62
Porterville 51/67/49/63 Lindsay 50/66/49/64 Delano 51/68/51/65
Bakersfield 53/69/53/65 Arvin 50/71/50/66 Taft 56/69/54/66
Lamont 53/70/52/66 Pixley 51/66/50/63 Tulare 50/65/49/63
Woodlake 51/65/49/62 Hanford 52/67/49/63 Orosi 51/66/49/62

 

Winds:  Expect winds out of the southeast tonight through Saturday night at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts from Fresno County northward.  Winds Sunday and Sunday night will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts.  Winds Monday will be generally less than 10 MPH.

 

Rain: Central California is largely free of shower activity this afternoon with the exception of light echoes over Monterey and northern San Luis Obispo County.  As that trough to our north sags further south, light showers may make it as far south as Fresno County later tonight with the best chance of light showers being Saturday afternoon and night as the cold front moves through.  Another front will move down the valley Sunday.  This one doesn’t appear to be very impressive at all, but a smaller chance of light showers will exist Sunday and Sunday night.  rainfall amounts from now through Sunday night will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch from Fresno County northward with less than a tenth of an inch down into Tulare and Kings Counties with probably no more than a few hundredths at best over the valley portion of Kern County.  Expect dry weather through at least Wednesday night.  a new low will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest either Thursday or Friday, depending upon model of choice.  This far out, it would appear most of the shower activity will again be from Fresno County north, but models will tweak this on both timing and intensity as time goes on.  It is possible for showers to move down at least into northern California next weekend and possibly farther south.  We’ll monitor that situation, as well.

 

Frost Information:  No chance of frost for at least the next week and quite possibly longer.

 

Next Report: Saturday, November 4