November 5, 2017
Summary: A cold low pressure system continues to spin over Washington and Oregon this morning. Freezing levels are between 2,000 and 3,000 feet north of the California/Oregon border. Some of this colder air has sunk southward into northern California. For example, the freezing level overnight at Oakland was down to 7,000 feet while the freezing level over Vandenberg was 11,000 feet. Some of this colder air will filter into the San Joaquin Valley today and Monday for below average temperatures. Mid to upper 30s are certainly possible tonight in the coldest locations and again Monday night with even a small chance of lower 30s in the very coldest areas Tuesday morning. No freeze conditions are expected, however.
The subtropical connection models had at one time shown moving into central and southern California has not, so the chance of measurable rain today is very low, although sprinkles are possible. Upslope cloudiness will remain against the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada as a strong westerly component in the winds aloft are lifted by the Sierra. By Monday afternoon, clearing will take place as the low to our north finally moves to the east, allowing a flat zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific to shift eastward into California. The main storm track will move into the Pacific Northwest.
Dry weather will continue through at least Wednesday night then a new trough will dig southward along the Pacific Northwest coast and into northern and central California Thursday. Models are not showing as robust a pattern for precipitation moving into the area as a strong westerly flow may shear off the main dynamics of this system. Therefore, just a chance of showers from Fresno northward is possible, but even that may be a stretch.
Beyond Thursday night, dry weather will prevail with a flat zone of upper level high pressure off shore and over California with the storm track remaining in the Pacific Northwest.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy today through Monday morning. A chance of isolated light showers or sprinkles. Clearing Monday afternoon. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night leading to a small chance of showers Thursday and Thursday night, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Friday. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/39/63/36/67 | Reedley 64/40/63/36/66 | Dinuba 63/38/63/35/65 | |
| Porterville 64/40/63/35/66 | Lindsay 63/38/63/34/67 | Delano 65/42/63/40/67 | |
| Bakersfield 67/45/63/43/68 | Arvin 67/43/63/41/68 | Taft 66/49/63/46/68 | |
| Lamont 67/44/63/42/69 | Pixley 65/41/63/37/67 | Tulare 62/40/63/36/66 | |
| Woodlake 64/40/63/36/67 | Hanford 64/40/63/35/68 | Orosi 63/39/63/35/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 45/77 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 52/71 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 45/67 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 44/69 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 43/72 |
Two Week Outlook: November 10 through November 16: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH today. Winds tonight through Tuesday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The chance of measurable rain is very low today as the expected subtropical connection simply did not materialize. A few sprinkles are possible, but all in all this whole weather change turned out to be a dud. Expect dry weather tonight and on through Wednesday night then a chance of showers Thursday, although each set of computer runs seems to back off on the potential for precipitation this far south. For now, we’ll maintain a small chance of showers in the forecast for Thursday and Thursday night from Fresno north, but if models continue their current trend we may have to take that chance of precip out of the forecast.
Dry weather will prevail Friday and likely right into the early part of next week.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 55%/95% Bakersfield, 50%/80%
Actual Humidity November 3, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 90%/36%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 60%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 50%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 3, 2017: Stratford .60, Parlier .53, Blackwell .63, Lindcove .57, Arvin .73, Orange Cove .61, Porterville .49, Delano .NA., Madera Two .47. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 64, Blackwell .67, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 64, Madera Two 65
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.0 -0.7
Record Temperatures: 86/30. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 102, -27 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 3, 2017 Fresno: .09 season. or -.63. Month to Date: .09
Since November 3, 2017, Bakersfield: T, or -.35, Month to Date: .T
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5, Parlier, 5 Arvin, 0, Shafter, 4, Stratford, 5, Madera two, 16, Alpaugh, 4, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 3, Porterville, 7 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:27 am Sunset: 5:58 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:34
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 68 / 55 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 68 / 56 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 72 / 54 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / M / M / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 54 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1653 / 70 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 73 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 70 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON T 0.13 13 2.40 235 1.02 14.06
MODESTO T 0.13 16 2.05 247 0.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 15 1.45 145 1.00 12.50
MADERA T 0.08 8 0.62 58 1.06 12.02
FRESNO T 0.09 12 0.67 88 0.76 11.50
HANFORD T 0.06 9 0.65 94 0.69 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.24 65 0.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 25 0.36 5.18
SALINAS T 0.21 30 1.69 238 0.71 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 0.20 27 1.39 185 0.75 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.03 4 1.28 171 0.75 13.95
Next Report: Monday, November 6