November 6, 2017
Summary: Skies have generally cleared over the entire valley this afternoon with the exception of a pocket of lower clouds banking up against the Tehachapi Mountains. Off shore, there is an upper level disturbance which will rapidly weaken and eventually move through southern California with no fan fare.
Upper level high pressure, weak as it may be, will dominate the overall pattern through Wednesday. This will allow daytime temperatures, especially, to warm a bit through mid week but overnight lows will remain chilly as some ag locations tonight and possibly even tomorrow night may dip into the mid to upper 30s.
The flow aloft will generally be out of the west through Wednesday which will be a dry flow. This will keep the storm track up in the Pacific Northwest. By later Wednesday night and Thursday, a low over the Pacific Northwest will sag into northern California and open up into a wave of low pressure which will move into central California Thursday. Models this afternoon show the drying trend continuing. Information this afternoon indicates showers will progress no further south Thursday than a Monterey/Merced line. Nevertheless, I do believe it’s a good idea to include a chance of showers in the forecast from Fresno County northward with the southland remaining dry.
Dry weather will return Friday as weak high pressure once again builds in from the west. The next weather system will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest late Sunday and Sunday night and move into central California Monday. Currently, models are showing a greater risk of showers from this system, but considering the lousy performance of recent modeling, we’ll just call for a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Wednesday with occasional high cloudiness tonight, mainly in the south valley. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night leading to a slight chance of showers from mainly Fresno north Thursday into Thursday evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Clearing Friday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of showers Monday, mainly from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/66/38/71 | Reedley 34/66/38/71 | Dinuba 34/65/37/70 | |
| Porterville 36/67/39/72 | Lindsay 34/67/38/72 | Delano 41/67/43/72 | |
| Bakersfield 45/68/46/74 | Arvin 43/68/46/74 | Taft 48/70/47/73 | |
| Lamont 44/69/47/74 | Pixley 38/67/40/72 | Tulare 36/66/40/72 | |
| Woodlake 35/66/40/71 | Hanford 35/67/39/72 | Orosi 36/66/39/73 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Wednesday with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday night and Thursday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly from Fresno northward.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Wednesday evening. Later Wednesday night and Thursday, a weakening trough will move through. This afternoon’s models are depicting the rain line even further north, as has been the case over the past few computer runs. For now, it looks like precip will advance to about Monterey/Merced line with only a slight chance of precipitation moving as far south as Fresno County. Expect dry weather to return Thursday night through about Sunday then the next low will drop southward into the Pacific Northwest Sunday and into central and southern California Monday. Latest models do show a better chance of precipitation moving even into the south valley, but considering the poor performance of recent medium range models, that may change, as well. We’ll tweak this as we move through the week.
Frost Information: A somewhat colder air mass has spread over central California with generally clear skies tonight. Colder locations will dip into the upper 30s with many locations near 40. Kern County will be somewhat warmer with temperatures in the low to mid 40s. there is a batch of mid and high level clouds off shore but models indicate they’ll move primarily into southern California tonight. On Wednesday morning, colder locations will dip down to about 37-40 with above freezing conditions for the remainder of the week.
Next Report: Tuesday, November 7