November 7, 2017
Summary: Weak high pressure has moved in from the eastern Pacific Ocean, generating mostly clear skies over the valley. Many locations have chilled into the mid to upper 30s with even a few river bottoms approaching the freezing mark, but certainly nothing unusual for this time of year. Temporarily, we are under a split flow with the main storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest and the southern branch of the jet stream moving into Baja and southern California. The weak ridge currently overhead will buckle Thursday, allowing a trough of low pressure to move into northern California, spreading showers to roughly a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line Thursday into early Friday. there is only a slight chance of any shower activity reaching as far south as Fresno County with the rest of the valley remaining dry.
This system will quickly move eastward, allowing another weak ridge to fill in behind the low. The high will once again be shoved southward about Sunday night by a low moving into the Pacific Northwest and again northern California. Models show showers moving down into central California Monday, however, considering how overzealous medium range models have been of late, we’ll call for just a chance of showers Monday, mainly from Fresno County northward.
Beyond Monday, it appears a strong westerly flow across the Pacific will be dominant with the main storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with the chance of precipitation remaining quite low.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today and tonight. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Wednesday night. mostly cloudy Thursday into early Friday with a slight chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a slight chance of showers Monday and Monday night, mainly from Fresno northward. Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/38/72/44/72 | Reedley 66/39/72/44/71 | Dinuba 66/37/71/43/71 | |
| Porterville 68/37/73/43/72 | Lindsay 68/37/72/43/71 | Delano 68/42/74/46/72 | |
| Bakersfield 70/46/76/50/73 | Arvin 70/42/75/49/73 | Taft 69/49/76/54/73 | |
| Lamont 71/45/76/48/73 | Pixley 68/38/73/44/71 | Tulare 66/37/71/44/71 | |
| Woodlake 67/38/72/45/72 | Hanford 67/38/72/45/72 | Orosi 68/37/73/43/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 48/71 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/69 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 42/72 |
Monday
Chance of showers 52/70 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 47/66 |
Two Week Outlook: November 11 through November 17: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Friday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Models continue to show a drier forecast for Thursday into Friday. most of the model information now is fairly consistent in showing showers moving down to about a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line with only a slight chance of showers as far south as Fresno County. Later Friday through Sunday will be dry with the next trough dropping in Sunday night and Monday. On paper, models show showers spreading down most of the valley Monday, however with the poor performance lately of medium range forecasts, this may turn out to be a dud, as well. For now, it’s best to just go with a chance of showers from Fresno County north for Monday. Models for Tuesday through the end of the week are pulling the rain line further north for a dry forecast south of Fresno County and just a chance north of there.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to lower 40s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 30s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 35%/95% Bakersfield, 30%/65%
Actual Humidity November 5, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 93%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 100% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 80%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 5, 2017: Stratford .55, Parlier .48, Blackwell .58, Lindcove .49, Arvin .68, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .44, Delano .NA., Madera Two .40. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 64, Blackwell 67, Lindcove, 66, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 65, Delano 64, Madera Two 65
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.1 +1.3
Record Temperatures: 87/33. Average Temperatures: 70/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 115, -32 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 5, 2017 Fresno: .10 season. or -.69. Month to Date: .02
Since November 5, 2017, Bakersfield: .02, or -.37, Month to Date: ..02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 5, Parlier, 6 Arvin, 0, Shafter, 4, Stratford, 7, Madera two, 22, Alpaugh, 4, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 4, Porterville, 10 Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:29 am Sunset: 4:56 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:34
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 64 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 61 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.13 12 2.40 212 1.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.13 14 2.05 223 0.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 14 1.45 133 1.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 7 0.62 54 1.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 12 0.67 82 0.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 8 0.65 83 0.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.02 5 0.24 59 0.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 23 0.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.21 27 1.69 214 0.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.20 24 1.39 170 0.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.04 5 1.28 156 0.82 13.95
Next Report: Tuesday, November 7/pm