November 8, 2017
Summary: Temperatures this morning are running generally 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday’s predawn temps. This is partially because of a weak southeast flow moving up the valley, but more so due to advancing high clouds ahead of a cold front which is moving into northern California. Doppler radar is indicating a band of precipitation is extending from roughly Mt. Lassen to generally just west of San Francisco. An impressive looking low pressure system is currently off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. It will result in a significant storm system for northern California. Models, however, show the front weakening rapidly as it moves into the central part of the state, spreading rain down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line with a chance of a few light showers as far south as Fresno County late tonight and Thursday.
A strong west/southwest flow is apparent over central and southern California. This will shear off the bottom portion of the trough, weakening its dynamics. Thus, most of the valley will be dry.
Behind the front, upsloping will occur along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. This will result in mostly cloudy conditions Thursday night through Friday morning. These clouds will slowly dissipate Friday afternoon for partly cloudy skies over the weekend as a flat ridge builds in from the west.
Another low will drop southward Sunday and Monday and over the Pacific Northwest Sunday night with another cold front moving through central California Monday. For now, it’s behavior appears to be similar to the current system with precipitation over northern California and a small chance of showers as far south as Fresno County. We will have to tweak the southern limit of the precipitation with this system, but for now we’ll forecast dry conditions for the south valley.
Beyond Monday, a weak ridge will again build in from the west, steering the storm track into mainly Washington and Oregon with dry conditions for much of California.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Mostly cloudy tonight through Friday morning. There will be a small chance of light showers as far south as Fresno County late tonight and Thursday. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night leading to a chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County northward Monday and Monday night. partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/50/69/47/68 | Reedley 74/49/71/47/70 | Dinuba 73/51/71/49/69 | |
| Porterville 75/51/71/47/69 | Lindsay 75/50/72/47/68 | Delano 76/52/71/50/69 | |
| Bakersfield 77/55/69/52/67 | Arvin 78/53/70/51/67 | Taft 76/58/70/55/68 | |
| Lamont 77/54/70/53/67 | Pixley 74/50/71/49/70 | Tulare 73/49/71/47/69 | |
| Woodlake 74/49/71/48/69 | Hanford 75/52/70/49/69 | Orosi 75/51/69/48/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 43/68 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 44/71 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 49/69 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 43/65 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 41/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 13 through November 19: There will be a chance of showers over northern California during this time frame, however models do show a flat zone of high pressure over central and southern California, so the chance of precipitation there is quite low. With the high generally in control, expect temperatures to warm to at least marginally above average.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH later today through tonight with locally stronger gusts, mainly north of Fresno County. Winds Thursday and Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH, diminishing late Thursday night. Winds Friday and Saturday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Short range models are continuing the trend that began a few days ago on medium range models. Basically, the chance of rain will be fairly high from a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line north then will diminish rapidly further south. There is a small chance of a few light showers as far south as Fresno County late tonight and Thursday, but for now I’m anticipating the south valley will remain dry.
The next chance of precipitation will be Monday. This system, too, appears will be over the northern half of the state with the rain line possibly as far south as Fresno County. Otherwise, the rest of the region will remain dry.
Interestingly enough, if we were in late November and beyond, these systems would be reaching into central California, but this early in the season, many times they’re sheared off on their southern flank.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 30%/80%
Actual Humidity November 6, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 92%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 6, 2017: Stratford .54, Parlier .47, Blackwell .55, Lindcove .47, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .42, Delano .NA., Madera Two .40. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 64, Blackwell 66, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 62, Porterville 65, Delano 64, Madera Two 65
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.3 +0.7
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 69/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 126, -31 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 6, 2017 Fresno: .10 season. or -.72. Month to Date: .01
Since November 6, 2017, Bakersfield: .02, or -.39, Month to Date: ..02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 9, Parlier, 13, Arvin, 0, Shafter, 5, Stratford, 17, Madera two, 36, Alpaugh, 4, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 6, Porterville, 18. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 4:55 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:30
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 68 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1547 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1557 / 66 / 48 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 0.13 12 2.40 212 1.13 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.13 14 2.05 223 0.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.15 14 1.45 133 1.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 7 0.62 54 1.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 12 0.67 82 0.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 8 0.65 83 0.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.02 5 0.24 59 0.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 23 0.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.21 27 1.69 214 0.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.20 24 1.39 170 0.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.04 5 1.28 156 0.82 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, November 8/pm