November 8, 2017
Summary: A band of light showers has spread as far south as Salinas along the coast with a few sprinkles even falling over Merced County. This weak band of energy will move southward and weaken with very little chance of showers as far south as Fresno County. A second band, which is the main cold front, is now spreading heavy rain along the northern California coast and it extends southwestward out to sea. A strong west/southwest flow is surging inland ahead of the front and will weaken the dynamics as it moves into central California late tonight and Thursday. In fact, all of the short term models are displaying the rain line down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line with, again, a chance of a few light showers as far south as Fresno County.
Ahead of all of this, temperatures are as much as 5 to 10 degrees warmer than they were 24 hours ago. As of 1:00pm, the temperature at Bakersfield was already 77 with low to mid 70s further north. Tonight will be a mild night as cloud cover moves in and caps relatively warm air on the valley floor so lows at most locations will only drop into the low to mid 50s.
A flat ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the eastern Pacific Friday through Sunday, continuing a relatively mild westerly flow aloft. As anticipated, models are already backing off on the southern limit of precipitation from a Pacific storm that will roll out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Monday. We’ll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast as far south as Fresno, but the rest of the region will remain dry.
Beyond Monday, a dominant westerly flow will continue underneath low pressure which will continue to keep the Pacific Northwest wet and wild from time to time. This should keep temperatures marginally above average next week. And, with generally a west to east flow, frost is simply not in the forecast at this time.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight with a small chance of a few light showers as far south as Fresno County, mainly after midnight. A chance of a few showers from Fresno north Thursday then mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday. variable cloudiness late Sunday night through Monday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 51/70/49/70 | Reedley 52/71/48/68 | Dinuba 51/71/49/69 | |
| Porterville 53/72/49/68 | Lindsay 51/72/48/68 | Delano 54/72/52/68 | |
| Bakersfield 56/73/53/67 | Arvin 54/74/50/66 | Taft 56/73/55/67 | |
| Lamont 54/73/53/66 | Pixley 53/72/48/68 | Tulare 51/71/48/69 | |
| Woodlake 53/72/48/69 | Hanford 53/72/49/69 | Orosi 52/71/48/69 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly along the west side. Winds later Thursday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH, diminishing Thursday night with winds of generally less than 10 MPH later Friday night through Saturday.
Rain: The first band of rain has reached as far south as a Salinas/Merced line, although only sprinkles are falling in Merced County. The stronger area of precipitation is moving into northern California with widespread precipitation which is locally heavy along the coast. This is the main cold front and it will move through central California late tonight through Thursday. The dynamics will rapidly weaken as it moves southward with only a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north. It still appears the south valley will remain dry.
Dry conditions will prevail Thursday night through at least Sunday night. models are also nudging the rain line further north on a system which will move through northern and central California Monday. Current thinking is that the precipitation will again reach down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line with a slight chance further south. Beyond Monday night, a strong westerly flow will undercut the main storm track which will move through the Pacific Northwest for dry conditions Tuesday and probably through the remainder of next week.
Frost Information: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Next Report: Thursday, November 9