November 10, 2017
Summary: A low pressure system which has been off the coast of the Pacific Northwest the past few days is weakening and is finally moving inland. Skies have generally cleared over central California with the exception of upslope clouds along the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. A weak zone of high pressure aloft will begin building inland tonight through Sunday before the next low drops southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Monday. As we’ve been discussing, the chance of measurable rain is rather low from the Monday event and we’ll stick with that precept this afternoon as the dynamics along the southern flank of the storm will rapidly weaken as it treks southward. The thrust of this system is more eastward than southward, anyway.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, a flat zone of high pressure will become reestablished over the Pacific Ocean and California. The storm track will be bumped well to our north. By late Wednesday night and Thursday, a new low will track into the Pacific Northwest then will be flanked by yet another low moving in from the southwest. However, modeling information this afternoon are showing this system moving in farther to the north so it may also be a northern California affair with central California ending up on the extreme southern flank of the system.
The bottom line the chance of rain will remain low for the next week to ten days, especially south of Fresno County, as a dominant westerly flow continues in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will cut off any potential cold air masses from invading the central valley for a while, so while we’ll have a dry forecast, it will also be frost free.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Sunday evening. Variable cloudiness Monday and Monday night with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Variable cloudiness Wednesday night through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 47/67/42/69 | Reedley 48/67/42/68 | Dinuba 48/66/43/68 | |
| Porterville 46/68/41/68 | Lindsay 46/68/41/69 | Delano 48/68/44/69 | |
| Bakersfield 52/67/46/70 | Arvin 49/67/45/69 | Taft 53/68/51/69 | |
| Lamont 50/67/49/69 | Pixley 47/67/41/68 | Tulare 46/68/40/68 | |
| Woodlake 48/68/41/69 | Hanford 47/67/42/68 | Orosi 48/67/41/69 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Monday with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and early morning hours.
Rain: The next chance of showers, small as it may be, will arrive in Fresno and Madera Counties Monday and even there the chance of anything measurable is no more than about 20%. Dry weather will prevail Tuesday through Wednesday night then a new low will encompass the Pacific Northwest and northern California Thursday and Thursday night. there is still some indication that a new low of a possible subtropical nature will head up the central California coast. However, some models this afternoon are tweaking this forecast a bit further north, reducing the chance of showers for our region. After Thursday night, the storm track will migrate back into the Pacific Northwest, so it’s possible no precipitation will occur to speak of for the next week and possibly longer.
Frost Information: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Next Report: Saturday/November 11