November 13, 2017
Summary: Skies are generally clear over the valley this afternoon with the exception of some high clouds from Tulare County south. In the meantime, a cold front extends from northern Idaho to north of San Francisco then westward out to sea. The system is not impressive. Only light showers are falling north of San Francisco/Sacramento. The front will make its way into the valley tonight with mostly cloudy skies but no precipitation is expected on the valley floor.
The air mass behind the front is not especially cold with temperatures the next few days being similar to what they are today.
Rain is on the way, however, as models are even more bullish this afternoon on the possibility of a strong low moving into the Pacific Northwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. A batch of subtropical moisture will meanwhile move in underneath the low and into northern California Wednesday. It will make its way into central California Wednesday night through Thursday night. significant precipitation will occur along the Sierra Nevada as winds will be perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, resulting in lift. Snow levels will be quite high due to the mild air mass flooding in ahead of this system, but up high two feet of new snow is possible. Things will wind down by late Thursday night as weak high pressure fills in from the west Friday through Sunday.
Models this afternoon show another system dropping into northern California Monday, possibly spreading showers down to a San Luis Obispo/Fresno line. This is the first time this system has shown up on projections. We’ll see if a trend develops over the next several days.
Forecast: Becoming mostly cloudy tonight. Partly cloudy Tuesday and Tuesday night. increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a small chance of showers from Fresno northward. Periods of rain spreading southward from Wednesday night through Thursday night. mostly cloudy Friday morning. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon except in Kern County which will remain mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a slight chance of showers, mainly from Fresno County north, on Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/69/43/69 | Reedley 47/70/43/69 | Dinuba 46/69/44/68 | |
| Porterville 45/70/44/69 | Lindsay 46/71/43/70 | Delano 48/71/46/70 | |
| Bakersfield 52/71/48/72 | Arvin 47/72/49/73 | Taft 54/71/53/72 | |
| Lamont 48/71/48/72 | Pixley 45/70/43/69 | Tulare 45/69/44/69 | |
| Woodlake 44/71/44/70 | Hanford 44/71/44/70 | Orosi 45/69/43/69 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday night. Winds later Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, continuing through Thursday, with stronger gusts, mainly north of Fresno County. Winds Thursday night will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, becoming generally light Friday.
Rain: Expect dry weather through at least Wednesday morning then a small chance of showers will begin to show up Wednesday afternoon. Periods of rain will slowly spread down the valley Wednesday night, continuing well into Thursday night. expect dry weather Friday through Sunday. Rainfall amounts between Wednesday night and Thursday night could range to between a quarter and a third of an inch from Fresno County north. A couple of tenths with locally more is possible in Tulare County with about a tenth in Kern County.
There will be a strong southwesterly wind component aloft with this system, so look for rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County, reducing rainfall amounts there.
After this storm, it appears we may have a small chance of showers about a week from today from roughly Fresno County northward with a small chance further south. A couple of models this afternoon are suggesting this, but it’s by no means a trend, so we’ll put Monday in the low chance category for rain for now, tweaking things as we go along.
Frost Information: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Next Report: Tuesday, November 14