November 14, 2017
Summary: There are a few pockets of lower clouds remaining this afternoon, mainly over Kings and Tulare Counties and eastern Kings County. Skies will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight, so pockets of fog will no doubt develop along with some possible areas of low clouds. Areas that clear will dip down into the low to mid 40s with somewhat milder temperatures at locations with somewhat cloudy skies.
The weather pattern continues to evolve into one which should result in significant precipitation along the east side of the valley north of Kern County with heavy amounts of rain and snow along the Sierra Nevada. Two low pressure systems are coming into play. The first is a cold low from the Gulf of Alaska dropping towards the Pacific Northwest while the other is a milder mid-Pacific storm which is moving underneath the northern system. It will move into northern California Wednesday.
Precipitation will be slow to move south as the jet stream and the main frontal system are running pretty much parallel, which inhibits southward movement. The exception will be along the Sierra Nevada where moisture moving underneath the low perpendicular to the mountains will squeeze out significant amounts of precip over the mountains before rain even begins in the valley. Rain will reach Fresno County late Wednesday night, but it may be as late as midday Thursday or even Thursday afternoon before the front moves far enough south to affect that region. Showers will continue Thursday night into early Friday with plenty of upslope clouds remaining crammed into the valley Friday, possibly lasting into Saturday morning.
Areas of fog will no doubt develop on Saturday and Sunday mornings with higher clouds increasing late Sunday night and Monday. Models do not seem to be as ambitious this afternoon about moving precipitation in any further south than a Monterey/Merced line Monday with a slight chance further south. We can expect several days of dry and foggy weather after that.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight with patchy fog late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Increasing clouds later Wednesday. Mostly cloudy Wednesday night with a chance of showers as far south as Fresno County before dawn. Periods of rain slowly spreading south Thursday, probably not reaching Kern County until at least midday Thursday and possibly later. Showers Thursday night and early Friday. partly to mostly cloudy Friday into early Saturday with areas of fog possible Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Sunday with areas of morning fog. Partly cloudy Monday night with increasing higher clouds later Monday and a slight chance of showers as far south as Fresno County. Partly cloudy Monday night. partly cloudy Tuesday with areas of morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/70/52/67 | Reedley 43/71/52/68 | Dinuba 43/72/51/67 | |
| Porterville 43/73/51/70 | Lindsay 41/71/52/70 | Delano 45/73/53/68 | |
| Bakersfield 48/75/55/74 | Arvin 48/76/55/75 | Taft 52/74/55/74 | |
| Lamont 48/76/56/74 | Pixley 44/72/52/69 | Tulare 43/71/51/68 | |
| Woodlake 42/71/50/67 | Hanford 42/72/52/68 | Orosi 43/71/53/69 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Later Wednesday, winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 MPH, continuing Wednesday night and increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Thursday with stronger gusts possible, especially along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH Thursday night with stronger gusts, diminishing by early Friday.
Rain: Precipitation will spread over northern California beginning Wednesday, but will take its sweet time moving southward as the frontal system will be a very slow mover. Rain may reach Fresno County by late Wednesday night and not reach Kern County until sometime Thursday afternoon. With a strong west/southwest component right ahead of the front, strong rain shadows will no doubt develop along the west side and in Kern County. Just the opposite will occur along the east side north of Kern County and especially over the Sierra Nevada. From roughly Porterville north along the east side rainfall amounts could range from one-quarter to one half inch with a quarter inch or less along the west side and no more than a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County.
Showers will continue for a time Thursday night with dry weather Friday with continuing dry weather through at least Sunday night. there’s only a small chance of light rain as far south as Fresno County Monday as models this afternoon are not overly optimistic on the southern extent of the next Pacific system.
Dry weather will prevail after Monday through at least next Friday.
Frost Information: The air mass settling into central California after the Thursday rain event will be colder, but nothing worrisome. On Saturday and again Sunday morning, lows in colder locations could dip down into the mid to upper 30s and where it stays clear possibly even some lower 30s on Sunday morning. Above freezing conditions will prevail Monday and beyond as another westerly flow will develop.
Next Report: Wednesday, November 15