November 16, 2017
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A strong low remains parked off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. Underneath this low is a batch of subtropical moisture which extends from a Bay Area/Tahoe line southwestward thousands of miles over the Pacific. There is also a batch of moisture moving on shore in Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties resulting in showers over the extreme southern Kern County mountains. Meanwhile, a huge rain shadow is prevalent along the west side of the valley. Just the opposite is true over the Sierra Nevada where precipitation continues over the higher elevations north of the Kern County line. The main moisture feed will sink very slowly southward over the next 24 hours with a chance of rain down to Fresno County later this afternoon or tonight then down into Kern County Friday morning. Rainfall tallies will be very tough to nail down due to so much wind energy aloft creating those strong rain shadows along the west side and in the south valley. The best chance for significant precipitation will be east of the 99 with the greatest totals near the Sierra Nevada foothills.
The weather will settle down Friday afternoon as what is left of the system moves into southern California and weakens rapidly. Upslope conditions will fill in behind this storm for plenty of cloud cover Friday night and Saturday morning, especially in Kern and Tulare Counties.
Upper level high pressure will take over this weekend. Areas of morning fog will be possible where it clears.
The next storm to drop down from the Pacific Northwest will do so Sunday with another southwest to northeast oriented flow of moisture moving into northern California. Models are at odds with one another on the southern limit of precipitation with this system. For now, it appears most of the active weather will be just to our north.
A west to southwest flow will continue after Monday, generating more wet weather to our north, but for now it appears central and southern California will remain dry with the main forecast challenge after Monday being areas of night and morning fog.
Forecast: Cloudy today with a chance of rain later this afternoon, mainly from Fresno County northward, and mainly east of highway 99. Rain spreading slowly southward tonight, reaching Kern County Friday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Monday leading to a slight chance of showers from Fresno north later Monday and Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday morning through Thanksgiving Day with areas of fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 71/55/63/40/63 | Reedley 73/55/64/42/64 | Dinuba 72/54/64/43/63 | |
| Porterville 74/56/64/40/63 | Lindsay 74/56/64/40/64 | Delano 75/57/64/43/65 | |
| Bakersfield 76/57/75/46/66 | Arvin 76/57/75/47/65 | Taft 74/58/75/50/66 | |
| Lamont 76/57/75/47/67 | Pixley 74/55/64/43/64 | Tulare 72/55/64/40/63 | |
| Woodlake 73/55/65/39/63 | Hanford 73/55/65/40/64 | Orosi 73/54/64/39/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
AM fog/partly cloudy 39/65 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 46/68 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 47/74 |
Wednesday
Areas of fog/mostly clear 46/72 |
Thanksgiving
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 47/73 |
Two Week Outlook: November 22 through November 28: This model is indicating the storm track will migrate somewhat further south during this time frame. Therefore, the risk of rain will be greater, especially after Thanksgiving. The dominant flow in the upper atmosphere will remain out of the west or southwest, so above average temperatures will continue.
November: November is when the traditional rainfall season begins. For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California. This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.
November, December, January: It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest. There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH today with local gusts to 25 MPH from Fresno County north. Winds tonight into Friday morning will continue out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH along the west side and mainly from Fresno County northward. Winds Friday afternoon through Friday evening will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts with light winds returning for the weekend.
Rain: The main feed of moisture is now moving inland from the bay area southward to Monterey with rain just north of Merced County. Precipitation has also spread down the Sierra Nevada to Tulare County. The main energy from this system will slowly sag southward over the next 24 hours with rain possibly reaching Fresno County by late afternoon, or even this evening. Rain will likely not reach Kern County until Friday morning. Rain shadows will continue to plague precip amounts in Kern County and along the west side. Generally, east of Highway 99 and north of Kern County possibly a quarter to a half inch could fall from tonight through Friday morning. Dry weather will return Friday afternoon and continue through the weekend. There will be a slight chance of showers from mainly north of Fresno Monday night and Tuesday, but for now even that seems to be a stretch with dry weather from midweek and more than likely through next weekend.
Frost information: A moderately colder air mass will filter in Friday through Saturday. It is by no means a frost threat. On Saturday and Sunday mornings, coldest locales could dip into the mid to upper 30s. Next week will be mild with a west/southwest flow over California. For now, there is no frost threat on the horizon.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 50%/100% Bakersfield, 40%/80%
Actual Humidity November 14, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/45%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 0% tomorrow 20%, Bakersfield: Today 20% tomorrow 10%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 14, 2017: Stratford .57, Parlier .49, Blackwell .52, Lindcove .52, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .57, Porterville .44, Delano .NA., Madera Two .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 62, Blackwell 64, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 65, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 62, Delano 64, Madera Two 63
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.6 +2.6
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 65/40
Heating Degree Days this Season: 182, -65 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 14, 2017 Fresno: .10 season. or -1.01. Month to Date: .01
Since November 14, 2017, Bakersfield: .02, or -.55, Month to Date: ..02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 35, Parlier, 43, Arvin, 11, Shafter, 36, Stratford, 39, Madera two, 89, Alpaugh, 21, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 29, Porterville, 73. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:38 am Sunset: 4:49 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:12
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 73 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 75 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 72 / 46 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 76 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 72 / 52 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.01 0.25 16 2.40 149 1.61 14.06
MODESTO T 0.26 20 2.06 160 1.29 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.17 12 1.45 101 1.44 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.08 5 0.62 41 1.50 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.10 9 0.67 59 1.14 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.06 5 0.65 59 1.11 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.02 3 0.24 41 0.59 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 0.09 17 0.54 5.18
SALINAS T 0.32 27 1.69 144 1.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.21 19 1.39 124 1.12 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.04 3 1.28 106 1.21 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, November 16/pm