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Forecast

November 17, 2017 report

November 17, 2017

Summary:   The atmospheric river of air finally moved southward overnight and is currently draped over the Kern County mountains and is moving into southern California.  Doppler radar is still showing pockets of showers, mainly on the east side of the valley from Fresno County southward, but as the main energy feed continues to weaken, any precipitation will be over by midday.

 

With a moist northwest flow behind the front, there will be plenty of upslope clouds banking up against the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains.  This will result in mostly cloudy conditions through Saturday morning with the exception of the west side which may begin to clear out this afternoon.

 

Upper level high pressure will begin to build in from t he west this evening and will dominate our pattern for the weekend.  Where skies clear during the overnight hours, areas of ground fog will develop, especially from Fresno County northward tonight and elsewhere Saturday night.

 

The next weather system will spread mainly light precipitation over northern California Monday.  This morning’s models seem to want to nudge the southern limit of precipitation to the north of our region, but not by much.  This means we will again be south of the main jet stream, creating another mild week ahead.

 

It appears the storm track will be oriented from southwest to northeast across the Pacific from Wednesday through Sunday of next week, placing it mainly in northern California and Oregon with central California remaining south of any activity.

 

Forecast:  Cloudy this morning with a chance of showers from Fresno County southward mainly before about 10:00 am or so.  Mostly cloudy on the east side and in Kern County this afternoon through Saturday morning.  Becoming partly cloudy on the west side north of Kern County.  Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday night with areas of low clouds and fog.  Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday with patchy low clouds and fog.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Friday .

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/38/65/37/64 Reedley 65/40/65/39/66 Dinuba 64/39/64/37/65
Porterville 64/40/65/36/66 Lindsay 64/39/65/36/66 Delano 65/43/66/42/67
Bakersfield 65/46/68/46/68 Arvin 64/45/68/44/68 Taft 66/49/68/47/68
Lamont 64/46/68/44/67 Pixley 65/42/65/39/66 Tulare 64/38/65/37/67
Woodlake 65/40/65/37/65 Hanford 65/39/65/37/66 Orosi 64/40/65/38/65

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

Patchy fog/variable clouds

43/69

Tuesday

Patchy fog/variable clouds

44/71

Wednesday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

47/75

Thanksgiving

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

48/72

Friday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

49/71

 

Two Week Outlook: November 23 through November 29:  This model is indicating the storm track will migrate somewhat further south during this time frame.  Therefore, the risk of rain will be greater, especially after Thanksgiving.  The dominant flow in the upper atmosphere will remain out of the west or southwest, so above average temperatures will continue.

 

November:  November is when the traditional rainfall season begins.  For now, it appears this month will be drier than average as upper level high pressure is depicted as more dominant over the Desert Southwest through southern California.  This would keep the storm track, for the most part, north of our region, and would also, on the average, result in above average temperatures.

 

November, December, January:  It appears this model is leaning towards above average precipitation perhaps over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies.  Higher than average pressure will continue over the Desert Southwest to the southern Midwest.  There is really no strong signature for above or below precipitation, but temperatures during the winter months should be at least marginally above average. 

 

Winds:  Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to near  20 MPH, mainly this morning.  Winds will decrease this evening with winds of generally less than 10 MPH later tonight through Sunday with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain: As of the time of this writing, most of the shower activity was south of Fresno County and was most prevalent on the east side of the valley.  These showers will continue to move southeastward with most, if not all, the activity ending by mid to late morning.  Expect dry weather this afternoon and probably through all of next week.  This is somewhat of a low confidence forecast, though.  It appears the main storm track will flank southwest to northeast across the Pacific and will move inland through Oregon and  northern California.  Central California will be just south of active weather.

 

Frost information:  Moderately colder air will begin to filter into the area today.  Where it clears tonight, temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to the lower 40s with mid 30s possible in those typical low lying areas.  Similar conditions are expected Sunday morning, although a few more locations may dip into the mid to upper 30s.  By and large, though, no frost threat is seen.

 

Longer term, I don’t see any problems for the next week as the flow aloft will remain west to southwest across the state, efficiently cutting off any potential cold air masses.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Bakersfield, mid to upper 40s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 50%/100%  Bakersfield, 55%/85%

Actual Humidity November 15, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 97%/44%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 20% tomorrow 60%, Bakersfield: Today 0% tomorrow 50%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 15, 2017: Stratford .56, Parlier .47, Blackwell .50, Lindcove .50, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .41, Delano .NA., Madera Two .52.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 62, Blackwell 64, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 62, Delano 64, Madera Two 63

 

Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.7 +2.9

Record Temperatures: 81/27. Average Temperatures: 65/40

Heating Degree Days this Season: 188, -72 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since November 15, 2017  Fresno: .10 season. or -1.04.  Month to Date: .01

Since November 15, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .02, or -.57,  Month to Date: ..02

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 36, Parlier, 43, Arvin, 11, Shafter, 41, Stratford, 40, Madera two, 92, Alpaugh, 25, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 29, Porterville, 80.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:39 am  Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:10

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  72 /  64 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  77 /  61 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  79 /  62 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  75 /  61 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  72 /  63 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  76 /  60 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1559 /  77 /  61 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  70 /  55 / 0.11 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.49    0.74    44    2.40   144     1.67    14.06

MODESTO                       0.31    0.57    43    2.06   155     1.33    13.11

MERCED                        0.29    0.46    31    1.45    98     1.48    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.08     5    0.62    40     1.54    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.10     8    0.67    57     1.18    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.06     5    0.65    57     1.15    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.02     3    0.24    39     0.61     6.47

BISHOP                           T       T     0    0.09    16     0.56     5.18

SALINAS                       0.07    0.39    32    1.69   139     1.22    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.21    18    1.39   121     1.15    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.04     3    1.28   102     1.25    13.95

 

Next Report: Friday, November 17/pm