November 20, 2017
Summary: there is considerably less fog this morning due to a stream of mid and high level clouds which are caught up in a west/southwesterly flow aloft ahead of a weakening cold front which is now moving into northern California. Doppler radar indicates there is quite a bit of shower activity over the north coast and over the Mount Shasta/Siskiyou region, but only a few light showers are falling south of that line. As the front moves southeastward, it will dissipate with no chance of rain for the valley. However, variable amounts of mid and high level clouds will continue to stream overhead through Tuesday. Despite the cloud cover, a high center is developing off the northwest Mexico coastline and will slowly expand northward over the next 72 hours. This will mean skies will be slow to clear by midweek as the storm track migrates further north and temperatures warm. Thanksgiving will be quite warm this year. Warmest locations Thanksgiving afternoon will run in the 80s. this same high will govern our weather through the coming weekend.
A cold front will try to penetrate through the high and spreading showers into northern California Sunday night and Monday, but for now it doesn’t look like the dynamics will be strong enough to impact central California other than to bring temperatures down somewhat.
Medium range models are still indicating a dry weather pattern for California for much of next week.
Forecast: Variable mid and high level clouds through Tuesday but mixed with sunshine from time to time. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/42/74/46/77 | Reedley 68/44/74/46/78 | Dinuba 67/43/73/46/77 | |
| Porterville 69/42/74/45/79 | Lindsay 69/42/74/46/78 | Delano 69/49/74/50/78 | |
| Bakersfield 71/53/76/55/81 | Arvin 71/49/76/50/82 | Taft 70/54/76/54/81 | |
| Lamont 72/49/76/51/82 | Pixley 69/43/74/45/77 | Tulare 67/42/74/45/77 | |
| Woodlake 68/48/74/44/77 | Hanford 68/43/74/46/78 | Orosi 69/43/74/45/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Patchy fog/hazy sun 47/76 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 46/74 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 47/77 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 47/73 |
Monday
Variable clouds 45/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 27 through December 4: This model is indicating the storm track will migrate somewhat further south during this time frame. Therefore, the risk of rain will be greater, especially after Thanksgiving. The dominant flow in the upper atmosphere will remain out of the west or southwest, so above average temperatures will continue.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next week to ten days.
Frost information: No chance of frost for the next week to ten days.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/95% Bakersfield, 40%/70%
Actual Humidity November 18, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/55%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 50% tomorrow 60%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 18, 2017: Stratford .52, Parlier .43, Blackwell .53, Lindcove .39, Arvin .44, Orange Cove .46, Porterville .35, Delano .NA., Madera Two .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 61, Blackwell 63, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 62, Delano NA, Madera Two 63
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.0 +3.8
Record Temperatures: 83/29. Average Temperatures: 63/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 207, -94 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 18, 2017 Fresno: .31 season. or -.94. Month to Date: .36
Since November 18, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.63, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 47, Parlier, 51, Arvin, 13, Shafter, 47, Stratford, 50, Madera two, 110, Alpaugh, 40, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 33, Porterville, 94. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 am Sunset: 4:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:06
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1557 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.78 42 2.70 146 1.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.72 49 2.12 143 1.48 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.82 51 1.45 91 1.60 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.21 13 0.62 38 1.65 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.31 24 0.67 52 1.28 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.17 14 0.65 52 1.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 4 0.24 35 0.68 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 26 0.09 15 0.62 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.40 29 1.72 126 1.37 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.23 18 1.39 111 1.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.05 4 1.28 92 1.39 13.95
Next Report: Monday, November 20/pm