November 24, 2017
Summary: There is a great deal of fog north of Kern County this morning. Fresno, Hanford, and Visalia are each reporting a visibility down to ¾ of a mile while Porterville and Bakersfield are down to 2 miles visibility. Where it isn’t foggy, it is very hazy as a warm air inversion continues to lock in the valley. Satellite imagery is also showing a considerable amount of mid and high level clouds streaming into northern and north/central California. This cloud deck stretches all the way from the California coast to southeast of Hawaii, but for now there’s no organized storm system embedded within this flow to result in a rain event.
The high which has resulted in the unusually warm Thanksgiving will slowly give way over the weekend as a low pressure system and its associated cold front drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest. The cold front will move through central California sometime late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Showers may spread in ahead of the front as far south as Fresno County by Sunday evening.
Models are not showing an impressive weather event from this system as it appears most of the precip will be over the mountains and from Fresno County northward, although a chance of light showers spreading into the south valley cannot be ruled out.
We will finally have a more seasonal air mass behind the front. Temperatures will drop back to near seasonal values Monday and even marginally below average Tuesday. Overnight lows beginning Tuesday morning should begin to dip into the mid to upper 30s in many areas with lower 30s possible in colder locations. More on that in the frost discussion below.
Weak high pressure will follow the Monday event then it appears the next challenge will be a weather system splitting off the California coast with one section possibly forming a cut off low off the central or southern California coast after midweek. For now, it doesn’t look like a precipitation event, but it may have some impact on temperatures and possible fog formation if higher clouds become involved.
Forecast: Areas of fog this morning north of Kern County, otherwise it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today. Partly cloudy tonight. Variable cloudiness Saturday and Saturday night with patchy fog nights and mornings. Increasing clouds Sunday with an increasing chance of light rain as far south as Fresno by late evening. A chance of showers Sunday night and Monday morning, especially from Fresno County northward. Partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning and much cooler. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Friday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 70/46/73/46/71 | Reedley 72/46/73/46/72 | Dinuba 72/45/73/46/74 | |
| Porterville 73/46/74/48/75 | Lindsay 73/45/74/47/75 | Delano 72/48/76/50/76 | |
| Bakersfield 73/53/76/53/78 | Arvin 74/49/78/51/79 | Taft 73/56/78/56/77 | |
| Lamont 74/50/78/51/79 | Pixley 72/47/74/49/75 | Tulare 71/45/74/48/73 | |
| Woodlake 72/46/74/48/73 | Hanford 72/46/74/48/73 | Orosi 72/46/74/48/74 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Light showers possible 52/61 |
Tuesday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 38/59 |
Wednesday
Areas of fog/hazy sun 35/63 |
Thursday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 36/62 |
Friday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 36/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 1 through December 7: This model shows a cold trough of low pressure digging southward into the western U.S. for a greater risk of rain. With a northwest flow more dominant, temperatures may be below average for a change.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday night. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH at times, continuing Sunday night. Winds Monday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with locally stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: It appears light rain could reach as far south as Fresno County by Sunday evening with light showers possibly spreading into the south valley Sunday night. the risk of showers will continue through Monday morning. This does not appear to be a major threat at all with most of the precipitation over the mountain areas and from Fresno County northward. For now, it looks like a tenth or two is possible from Fresno County northward Sunday night through Monday morning with less than a tenth of an inch further south. Dry weather will return by late Monday and for now it appears a dry weather pattern will continue on through next week, although there is some question about the behavior of a potential cut off low off shore about Wednesday night or Thursday, but for now we’ll go with a dry forecast for next week with the exception of Sunday night and Monday.
Frost information: All locations will be above freezing through at least Monday night. as we have been discussing, a more typical air mass will invade the area behind a cold front which will move through Monday morning will lower temperatures in at least areas that clear into the mid to upper 30s with a chance of some lower 30s in the more typical cold spots. That same rule of thumb can apply to Wednesday and Thursday mornings, as well. Some models show a cut off low forming off the central or southern California coast around mid week or so, which could begin to throw some higher clouds over the region. But, suffice it to day, we will simply be entering a more typical fall pattern with temperatures rising into the low to mid 60s for highs and dipping into the mid 30s to lower 40s for lows with local frost possible in the coldest locations.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Bakersfield, upper 40s to the lower 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 45%/100% Bakersfield, 40%/80%
Actual Humidity November 22, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/33%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 60%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 22, 2017: Stratford .54, Parlier .43, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .38, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .47, Delano .NA., Madera Two .44. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 60, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 61, Delano NA, Madera Two 61
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.0 +4.5
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 62/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 235, -126 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 22, 2017 Fresno: .31 season. or -1.09. Month to Date: .36
Since November 22, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.72, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 58, Parlier, 65, Arvin, 29, Shafter, 71, Stratford, 69, Madera two, 143, Alpaugh, 65, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 44, Porterville, 135. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:46 am Sunset: 4:45 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:59
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 75 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 75 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 77 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 77 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 75 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 76 / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 76 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 77 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.78 37 3.42 164 2.09 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.72 43 2.55 152 1.68 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.82 47 1.70 97 1.76 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.21 12 1.67 92 1.81 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.31 22 1.28 89 1.44 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.17 12 0.76 55 1.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 4 0.39 51 0.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 23 0.09 13 0.69 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.40 25 1.94 122 1.59 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.23 17 2.34 168 1.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.05 3 2.01 126 1.59 13.95
Next Report: Friday, November 24/pm