November 25, 2017
Summary: The usual suspect locations are now reporting dense fog. Visalia, Hanford, and Merced are now down to a quarter mile or less with other valley locations generally between one and two miles. Above the fog and haze are mid and high level clouds overrunning upper level high pressure which is currently centered over northern Baja. Today will be the last day this high will control our weather pattern. A colder trough of low pressure is currently digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska and will interact with moisture streaming in from the Pacific, running from southwest to northeast towards the Pacific Northwest and northern California.
It now appears rain will spread down to Fresno County by about midday Sunday with showers spreading over the south valley later Sunday afternoon or night, continuing into Monday morning. This does not look like a big rain event for the valley, however lift along the mountains may squeeze and inch or two of rain out of the clouds from Sequoia Park Northward. The rain will be over by late morning Monday, but clearing will be slow as a northwest flow moves colder air down the valley which will be lifted by the Sierra and the Kern County mountains, forming upslope clouds. The west valley will clear first then slowly erode into the remainder of the region.
This morning’s models are showing milder overnight lows than previous model runs. Nevertheless, mid to upper 30s will be possible in colder locations Tuesday and Wednesday morning where it clears.
Models continue to vary widely on the pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday as a cut off low may develop just off shore. Placement of this low will be critical to our forecast, but for now I’m not going to call for precip as many times these features are moisture starved. Another trough will move through about the second half of next weekend, which theoretically could bring rain, but it’s too early to make that assumption.
Forecast: Areas of fog, mainly north of Kern County this morning, otherwise it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy. Partly cloudy tonight. Increasing cloudiness Sunday with an increasing chance of rain by midday as far south as Fresno County with light showers spreading southward during the afternoon. Showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Becoming partly to mostly cloudy Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. Partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/50/75/53/63 | Reedley 75/49/76/51/62 | Dinuba 74/48/75/51/62 | |
| Porterville 77/48/77/52/63 | Lindsay 77/47/46/51/63 | Delano 78/52/79/53/63 | |
| Bakersfield 78/55/80/56/63 | Arvin 80/52/80/52/64 | Taft 78/56/80/57/62 | |
| Lamont 79/53/80/54/62 | Pixley 78/48/76/52/63 | Tulare 74/48/75/50/62 | |
| Woodlake 76/49/76/53/63 | Hanford 75/48/77/53/62 | Orosi 77/49/76/52/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 42/60 |
Wednesday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 38/59 |
Thursday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 39/64 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly cloudy 46/62 |
Saturday
Areas of fog/partly cloudy 43/63 |
Two Week Outlook: December 2 through December 8: This model shows a cold trough of low pressure digging southward into the western U.S. for a greater risk of rain. With a northwest flow more dominant, temperatures may be below average for a change.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through tonight with periods of near calm conditions then will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Sunday morning, increasing to 10 to 15 MPH Sunday afternoon and night with stronger gusts. Winds Monday morning will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible, diminishing Monday night with light winds returning Tuesday.
Rain: This morning’s models are continuing the trend of at least some rain spreading all the way down the valley from roughly midday Sunday in Fresno County, spreading southward Sunday afternoon and with mainly light showers from Sunday evening through Monday morning. It does not appear precipitation amounts will be overly impressive, but more than a quarter of an inch can be expected in Fresno and Madera Counties, sloping down to about a tenth or to in Tulare and Kings Counties and most spots in Kern County should record less than a tenth with the possible exception of near the base of the foothills in the extreme south. Dry weather will return Monday afternoon and will probably continue through next weekend. I hedge just a bit on that due to an upper low developing off the coast about Wednesday night or Thursday. For now, it looks pretty moisture starved so I’m going with a dry forecast. We also have the possibility of another colder trough moving through during the second half of next weekend which theoretically could spread showers over the valley, but stay tuned on that one as it’s too far away to reasonably give an accurate forecast around.
Frost information: The air mass moving in behind the Sunday/Monday event is colder, but does not appear to be quite as cold as previous models had indicated. Even so, mid to upper 30s are possible in the coldest locations beginning Tuesday morning where skies clear. But for now, no frost is expected. We could see an off shore flow Wednesday night or Thursday. For now, though, we’ll keep any chance of frost out of the forecast. The medium range model runs don’t show a pattern which would be conducive for overly cold weather, so we’ll keep anything serious out of the forecast for now.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Bakersfield, low to mid 50s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 50%/95% Bakersfield, 45%/75%
Actual Humidity November 23, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 95%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 60% tomorrow 30%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 40%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 23, 2017: Stratford .53, Parlier .43, Blackwell .52, Lindcove .41, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .51, Porterville .39, Delano .NA., Madera Two .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano NA, Madera Two 61
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.1 +4.8
Record Temperatures: 78/29. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 239, -138 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 23, 2017 Fresno: .31 season. or -1.13. Month to Date: .36
Since November 23, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.74, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 58, Parlier, 65, Arvin, 29, Shafter, 73, Stratford, 69, Madera two, 152, Alpaugh, 70, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 44, Porterville, 142. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:47 am Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:57
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 73 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 73 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1500 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 76 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 71 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 73 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 74 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1500 / 74 / 55 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
MODESTO 0.00 0.72 42 2.55 147 1.73 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.82 46 1.70 94 1.80 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.21 11 1.67 91 1.84 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.31 21 1.28 87 1.47 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.17 12 0.76 55 1.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 4 0.39 49 0.80 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 23 0.09 13 0.71 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.40 24 1.94 118 1.64 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.23 16 2.34 164 1.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.05 3 2.01 123 1.64 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, November 25/pm