November 27, 2017
Summary: A rapidly moving cold front is moving through the extreme eastern and southern portions of the San Joaquin Valley and into the Sierra Nevada at this hour. Rainfall amounts so far have been quite light with most locations recording less than a tenth of an inch. The heaviest amount I could find was .14 at Hanford with just a spattering of sprinkles over the valley portion of Kern County.
Today will be “Welcome Back, November” as readings will plummet from the low to mid 80s yesterday to the low to mid 60s today. Winds were very gusty along the cold front itself with winds of 20 to 30 MPH being reported at several locations over the past few hours. Once the front moves eastward, winds will begin to decrease, but winds of ten to twenty MPH can be expected today, diminishing tonight.
Now that the colder air is pouring down the valley, overnight lows will be much more seasonal with many locations seeing temperatures in the mid to upper 30s tonight with colder low pockets possibly down into the lower 30s. that will be a general rule of thumb for much of the week as the atmosphere settles down and the storm track migrates further north.
Areas of fog will also develop, although I believe it will be very patchy Tuesday morning, but there will be areas of fog and low clouds Wednesday through Thursday mornings. Most areas, though, will see sunshine for much of the day.
The next chance of precipitation will be during the second half of this coming weekend. A cold trough of low pressure will drop southward, possibly from western Canada. Models indicate this system will not carry much moisture, a fact that could lead to our first general frost situation early next week. The flow aloft will be out of the north, plunging colder air into the western U.S. with temperatures possibly down into the upper 20s or so by Monday morning. This far out, it’s difficult to nail things down as models are just now pointing in this direction. This could change over the next several days, but it is the first time this season that a potentially cold air mass could invade the area.
Forecast: Showers mainly along the fast eastern side of the valley for a time this morning with a small chance of isolated showers before noon. Partly cloudy this afternoon but remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and possibly the eastern portion of Tulare County. Partly cloudy tonight with areas of fog developing. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies over portions of Kern County and eastern Tulare County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Friday night with areas of night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness Saturday leading to a chance of light showers Saturday night and Sunday. A slight chance of showers Sunday night. partly cloudy and colder Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/33/63/35/62 | Reedley 63/34/63/35/63 | Dinuba 64/34/63/36/62 | |
| Porterville 64/35/63/35/62 | Lindsay 63/32/63/34/62 | Delano 64/37/63/37/63 | |
| Bakersfield 62/41/63/41/63 | Arvin 62/41/63/38/63 | Taft 64/42/63/43/63 | |
| Lamont 64/40/63/39/62 | Pixley 63/36/63/36/62 | Tulare 62/34/63/34/62 | |
| Woodlake 63/35/63/36/62 | Hanford 64/35/63/36/61 | Orosi 62/33/63/33/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Areas of fog/mostly clear |
Friday
Areas of fog/mostly clear 40/64 |
Saturday
Increasing clouds 39/66 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 42/60 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 32/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 4 through December 10: The dominant feature on this model is a cold trough of low pressure over the interior west. Most of the energy from this system will be to our east so the chance of rain is low. The dominant flow aloft will be out of the northwest so temperatures should range somewhat below seasonal averages.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds early this morning will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH, decreasing to 10 to 20 MPH later this morning and during the afternoon. Winds tonight through Thursday will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: The following is a sampling of rainfall amounts as of 5:00 this morning: Fresno .06, Madera .12, Parlier .07, Taft .01, Hanford .14, Lemoore .05, Bakersfield trace, Tulare .11, Visalia .04.
As you can see, this was a very light precipitation event, pretty much as expected. The bulk of the rain has already moved into the Sierra Nevada with showers ending in Tulare and Kern Counties over the next hour and a half or so. There is a slight chance of a few light showers before the mid morning hours, but overall things are winding down. Expect dry weather this afternoon and all the way through at least Friday night. a cold low is expected to drop southward into California about Saturday night or Sunday. On paper, this system appears moisture starved, but it could, for the first time this season, lower snow levels down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet.
Beyond the Saturday/Sunday event, models point to dry conditions indefinitely.
Frost: For the first time this season, I’m going to put a few numbers below as a more seasonal air mass is barreling down the valley behind the cold frontal passage. Where skies clear tonight, mid to upper 30s are likely with low 40s in locations with some upslope clouds banking against the Sierra and the Kern County mountains. Coldest locations tonight may drop into the lower 30s with even an isolated spot or two dipping into the upper 20s. mid to upper 30s are also like Wednesday and Thursday mornings with a few low 30s possible. Some moderation will occur towards the weekend, but readings will remain fairly seasonal with mid to upper 30s in colder spots.
More importantly, models are beginning to hint at a possible colder pattern setting up during the second half of the coming weekend. It is not a classic freeze situation, but it is a pattern that could lower temperatures into the upper 20s to the lower 30s by Monday or Tuesday of next week. The overall pattern shows a low dropping southward from western Canada and down into the western United States with an almost northerly flow behind the system headed into California. Since this is still a week away, there is plenty that could cause this pattern to change as is typical, but on paper it did pique my interest, so we’ll see how the elements play out during the course of the week. We’ll make adjustments accordingly.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
AF |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s Bakersfield, mid to upper 30s
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 50%/90%
Actual Humidity November 24, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 40% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 30% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 24, 2017: Stratford .53, Parlier .41, Blackwell .56, Lindcove .44, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .41, Delano .NA., Madera Two .43. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano NA, Madera Two 61
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.2 +5.1
Record Temperatures: 76/27. Average Temperatures: 61/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 244, -149 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 24, 2017 Fresno: .31 season. or -1.16. Month to Date: .36
Since November 24, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.77, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 58, Parlier, 65, Arvin, 29, Shafter, 74, Stratford, 69, Madera two, 159, Alpaugh, 72, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 44, Porterville, 144. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 4:44 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:56
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 81 / 52 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 84 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 84 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 81 / 50 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 80 / 57 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 85 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 87 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON T 0.78 34 3.72 164 2.27 14.06
MODESTO T 0.72 39 2.75 150 1.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.82 44 2.02 109 1.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.21 11 1.86 97 1.91 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.31 20 1.75 113 1.55 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.17 12 0.87 61 1.42 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 4 0.51 61 0.84 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 21 0.09 12 0.75 5.18
SALINAS T 0.40 23 2.35 134 1.75 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.23 15 2.61 174 1.50 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.05 3 2.46 142 1.73 13.95
Next Report: Monday, November 27/pm