Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are running anywhere from 17 to 21 degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. The freezing level over Oakland earlier this morning had dropped down to 4,800 feet, which is by far the lowest we’ve seen so far this season. At the same time, the freezing level over Vandenberg Air Force Base was 7,400 feet, but no doubt that has dropped since that reading was taken.
Skies have cleared for the most part over much of the valley this afternoon. There are upslope clouds developing from southeastern Tulare County and especially over the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi’s and along the Diablo Range. Dew points have lowered into the lower 40s at most locations which is not excessively low for this type of air mass. Even so, many rural locations tonight will dip into the mid 30s to the lower 40s with low 30s possible where ideal conditions set up.
Weak upper level high pressure will begin to nose in from the west tonight and Tuesday. The next Pacific storm is weaker and will pretty much fall apart as it moves through central California Wednesday with little impact. By Wednesday night, it will form a cut off low southwest of San Diego, but again, there will be no impact on the valley’s weather. I would anticipate the fog to be on the patchy side tomorrow morning, becoming more widespread Wednesday through Saturday mornings as a zone upper level high pressure creates a warm air inversion.
This afternoon’s models so far don’t portray the weekend’s air mass as being as cold as it had earlier appeared. For now, most show a northwest flow as opposed to a northerly flow which makes a huge difference in the potential for cold weather. Still, this far out models will no doubt flip flop until a trend is nailed down and a more definitive forecast can be determined.
There will be a chance of light showers Saturday into Sunday, but even this isn’t looking as definite as it had earlier.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight with the exception of southeastern Tulare County and most of Kern County which will be mostly cloudy possibly into Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Friday night with areas of night and morning fog, especially north of Kern County. Increasing cloudiness Saturday with a slight chance of showers late Saturday through Sunday morning. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/63/34/63 | Reedley 35/62/34/62 | Dinuba 34/63/35/62 | |
| Porterville 35/64/35/63 | Lindsay 32/62/33/63 | Delano 38/64/37/64 | |
| Bakersfield 42/63/42/63 | Arvin 39/64/38/64 | Taft 43/63/42/64 | |
| Lamont 40/64/39/63 | Pixley 36/63/35/63 | Tulare 34/62/34/62 | |
| Woodlake 34/63/34/63 | Hanford 35/63/36/62 | Orosi 34/62/34/62 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Thursday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions through at least Friday night. there will be a slight chance of light showers late Saturday through early Sunday morning, however projections this afternoon aren’t as keen on this. Otherwise, expect dry weather after Sunday.
Frost Information: As of the time of this writing, dew points were generally in the lower 40s up and down the line. Skies have generally cleared with the exception of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County where upslope clouds are developing. With a much cooler air mass now in place, mid 30s to lower 40s look likely tonight in most locations with lower 30s in coldest locations. Some locations, especially in Kern County, may stay in the lower 40s due to cloud cover, but with the drier flow moving in aloft, it is possible most, if not all, these clouds could mix out during the course of the night and allowing mid to upper 30s in Kern County.
The potential for mid to upper 30s will be there each night for the remainder of the work week as weak upper level high pressure seals in the air mass to the lower level of the atmosphere. In other words, a warm air inversion is trapping the colder air mass on the valley floor.
Latest models, or at least some of them, are backing off a bit on a potential cold pattern for early next week. They do show some colder air filtering in from the north as a system dives into the Great Basin, however on paper the winds aloft are now expected to be out of the northwest. This is a far cry from the north or northeast direction earlier depicted. Still, this is something we’ll have to keep a close eye on as models do they’re usual flip flopping as we are a week out.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
33 |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
AF |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
Next Report: Tuesday morning, November 28