November 29, 2017
Summary: Temperatures are running 2 to 3 degrees warmer at most locations than they were 24 hours ago. This is due to a very weak trough passage which is being accompanied by high clouds, but little else. Behind this little trough, upper level high pressure will again fill in from the west. Temperatures, especially Thursday and Friday, will begin to nudge above average during the afternoon hours, but will remain close to seasonal values at night courtesy of good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies.
Fog is not expected to be extensive for the foreseeable future. Even though high pressure will take over, rainfall has so far been very limited, thus available moisture at the lowest level of the atmosphere is limited, as well.
We’ve been talking about a possible weather change coming up this weekend, but models this morning are all showing dry weather. most are showing a split flow developing off shore with most of the activity moving into northwest California and points northward. For now, it appears the only chance of precipitation over the weekend and early next week will be over the high Sierra, and even there, if precipitation occurs at all, it will be very light in nature.
Temperatures will drop back to seasonal averages behind this system as it plows inland during the second half of the weekend, but that should be the only impact.
Models for later next week are now indicating a strong ridge will develop over the eastern Pacific and western U.S. for a continuation of a dry weather pattern. By late next week, temperatures could range above to even well above average.
Forecast: The high clouds this morning will clear out as the morning progresses with mostly clear and hazy conditions this afternoon and tonight. From Thursday through Saturday, expect mostly clear skies with patchy night and morning fog and hazy afternoons. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday with patchy night and morning fog. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/34/66/36/67 | Reedley 64/35/66/37/67 | Dinuba 64/34/65/37/67 | |
| Porterville 64/36/66/37/67 | Lindsay 63/34/66/36/67 | Delano 63/39/66/41/66 | |
| Bakersfield 65/42/66/44/68 | Arvin 65/37/66/39/68 | Taft 65/45/66/46/68 | |
| Lamont 65/40/66/46/69 | Pixley 63/36/66/38/67 | Tulare 62/34/66/36/66 | |
| Woodlake 63/35/66/37/67 | Hanford 63/35/66/37/67 | Orosi 64/34/65/36/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 39/66 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 37/61 |
Monday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 35/61 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 34/63 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 35/64 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12: This model shows a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies. This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: Most locations are about 2 to 3 degrees warmer this morning due to a veil of high clouds and a little bit of mixing courtesy of a very weak trough of low pressure. Skies will be mostly clear over the next few nights, allowing for good radiational cooling with most locations again in the mid to upper 30s with river bottom and like locations dipping into the lower 30s.
Over the weekend, what is left of a weather system will move through but with very little impact. For now it appears there will be enough cloud cover to maintain above freezing conditions in all locations into the early part of next week. By Monday a marginally cooler air mass will spread over the area with overnight lows again falling back into the 30s. However, nothing serious is expected at this juncture.
We had mentioned yesterday the possibility of a cold pattern setting up about the sixth of December. That does not show up this morning, instead, a massive ridge of high pressure is projected to move over and along the west coast. This would mean above average temperatures, especially during the afternoon hours while polar air plunges southward east of the Rockies. So, the bottom line is for now there is no serious cold weather on the horizon, but dry conditions will continue.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
AF |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
AF |
Exeter
AF |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
AF |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
AF |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 50%/80%
Actual Humidity November 27, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 96%/51%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 90%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 27, 2017: Stratford .58, Parlier .43, Blackwell .62, Lindcove .48, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .51, Porterville .44, Delano .NA., Madera Two .43. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 61, Blackwell 63, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano NA, Madera Two 61
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.4 +5.9
Record Temperatures: 76/28. Average Temperatures: 60/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 259, -185 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 27, 2017 Fresno: .37 season. or -1.22. Month to Date: .28
Since November 27, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.84, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 62, Parlier, 69, Arvin, 31, Shafter, 84, Stratford, 73, Madera two, 174, Alpaugh, 86, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 48, Porterville, 164. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:51 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:53
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 50 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 50 / 35 / 0.12 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 57 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 38 4.05 170 2.38 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 51 2.99 155 1.93 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 54 2.32 121 1.92 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 16 2.20 112 1.96 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 23 2.05 127 1.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 25 1.00 68 1.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 3 0.62 70 0.89 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 21 0.09 12 0.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 40 2.56 137 1.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 16 2.65 169 1.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 5 2.58 141 1.83 13.95
Next Report: Wednesday, November 29/pm