November 30, 2017
Summary: There is a fairly narrow ribbon of fog stretching up the center of the valley from roughly just north of Delano to Merced. The latest observations indicated the visibility at Visalia was ¾ of a mile, ½ mile at Hanford, and ¼ of a mile at Merced. Elsewhere, the visibility was at least a mile or two.
Currently, central California is sandwiched between two streams of energy. The first is a tropical jet stream moving into Baja and southeast California. The second is the main storm track which is moving into the Pacific Northwest. Between these two features are generally clear skies over central California.
Models show weak upper level high pressure remaining over the eastern Pacific through Friday night, maintaining the status quo. Clouds will increase Saturday ahead of a dry cold front which will move through Saturday night with perhaps a few snow showers over the high Sierra, but little else. Behind this front is somewhat colder, but more importantly drier, air which may very well result in the first significant frost event of the season, especially beginning Tuesday morning. The surface flow will become off shore which will be the main catalyst in filtering drier air into the valley.
By Tuesday, a massive ridge of upper level high pressure will be forming over the eastern Pacific and the western U.S. This will lock in a layer of relatively cold and fairly dry air on the valley floor, potentially leading to a series of frost nights next week. As the high amplifies even further north into the Yukon Territory of Canada, an arctic trough of low pressure will blast its way down the center of the country for the first real bout of winter there. Interestingly enough, models maintain this pattern for several days with a big bump of high pressure in the west and the cold, arctic trough east of the Rockies. This pattern, of course, is a dry one for central California, so at this time I don’t see any rain on the horizon after a very dry November.
Forecast: Areas of morning fog up the center of the valley north of Kern County this morning through Saturday morning with patchy fog elsewhere, otherwise it will be clear and hazy through Friday night. increasing cloudiness Saturday. Variable cloudiness at times Saturday through Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/34/65/35/66 | Reedley 65/35/66/36/66 | Dinuba 65/34/66/35/65 | |
| Porterville 65/35/66/36/67 | Lindsay 65/32/66/34/67 | Delano 66/38/66/39/68 | |
| Bakersfield 66/40/67/42/68 | Arvin 67/37/67/38/68 | Taft 65/45/67/45/68 | |
| Lamont 66/39/67/40/68 | Pixley 65/35/66/37/67 | Tulare 64/33/66/35/66 | |
| Woodlake 65/34/65/35/65 | Hanford 65/34/66/35/67 | Orosi 64/32/66/34/66 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Variable clouds 40/61 |
Monday
Clearing 35/56 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 30/58 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 29/60 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 30/64 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12: This model shows a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies. This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: Temperatures this morning are again dropping into the thirties throughout the region and I would anticipate similar conditions Friday morning and possibly Saturday, as well, with the coldest river bottom and like locations dipping down to 32 or so. More importantly, a cold front which will have no active weather associated with it, will move down the valley Saturday night. the air flooding in behind this system will be colder, but if models are correct it will also be drier. By Sunday night and Monday, an off shore flow will develop both at the surface and aloft which theoretically would move drier air down the valley, thus lowering dew points. I do not see this as a critical situation, however it is one which may very well lower temperatures into the 27 to 32 degree range beginning Tuesday morning. Local frost is possible even Monday morning.
Once this air mass becomes trapped on the valley floor as strong upper level high pressure takes over, we may very well see a string of frost nights with colder locations at least into the upper 20s. this could possibly last into the following weekend. Daytime highs, which will drop into the mid to upper 50s Monday will slowly warm through the coming work week, but due to the possible dryness of the air, overnight lows will still be sub freezing.
Fortunately, the real cold air will be diving southward east of the Rockies beginning Monday and Tuesday and intensifying later next week, leaving the western states under a very dry regime with well above average temperatures over the mountain and coastal areas.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
AF |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 50%/100% Bakersfield, 45%/80%
Actual Humidity November 28, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 90%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 28, 2017: Stratford .58, Parlier .43, Blackwell .61, Lindcove .48, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .43, Delano .NA., Madera Two .43. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 60, Blackwell 63, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 60, Delano NA, Madera Two 61
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 58.1 +5.7
Record Temperatures: 76/26. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 275, -186 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 28, 2017 Fresno: .37 season. or -1.25. Month to Date: .28
Since November 28, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.86, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 73, Parlier, 81, Arvin, 39, Shafter, 97, Stratford, 84, Madera two, 190, Alpaugh, 91, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 59, Porterville, 178. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 38 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 61 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 59 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 37 4.05 165 2.45 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 49 2.99 150 1.99 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 53 2.32 119 1.95 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 16 2.20 111 1.99 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 22 2.05 123 1.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 25 1.00 68 1.48 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 3 0.62 67 0.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 20 0.09 11 0.80 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 39 2.56 133 1.92 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 16 2.65 165 1.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 5 2.58 137 1.88 13.95
Next Report: Thursday, November 30/pm