December 1, 2017
Summary: Yet another finger of fog stretches up the center of the valley from roughly Delano to Merced. Outside of the foggy areas, skies are again generally clear with overnight lows once again well down into the 30s. the overall weather picture indicates upper level high pressure remains temporarily over the eastern Pacific, extending inland to the Great Basin. This will maintain tranquil weather through Saturday, although clouds will begin to increase by late in the day. Late Saturday night, a dry cold front will move down the valley with variable amounts of cloud cover. The only precipitation in central California will be light showers over the Sierra Nevada down to near Yosemite.
The parent low of the cold front will move through Oregon and northern California Sunday into early Monday, ushering in a colder air mass. This mass will lead to some frost nights beginning Tuesday morning. The combination of a strong off shore flow due to building surface high pressure over the Great Basin and a northerly flow aloft will generate the coldest air mass of the year so far. Daytime highs as early as Monday will only be in the low to mid 50s. overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, and possibly colder. More on this is discussed in the frost section below.
By midweek, a massive upper high will be centered just off shore, extending inland over the western states while a deep trough of low pressure digs southward into the Midwest. This is an amplified pattern and will block any chance of storminess from moving into California for possibly the next 10 days.
Forecast: Areas of fog from roughly Delano northward up the center of the valley this morning. Otherwise, there will be hazy sunshine today. Mostly clear tonight with areas of fog redeveloping up the center of the valley. Areas of fog Saturday morning. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. Variable cloudiness Saturday night through Sunday night. clearing Monday with gusty winds developing. Mostly clear Monday night through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/34/65/38/61 | Reedley 64/35/64/39/60 | Dinuba 63/33/64/37/61 | |
| Porterville 65/35/65/37/62 | Lindsay 65/33/65/38/62 | Delano 66/36/65/40/62 | |
| Bakersfield 67/43/68/46/63 | Arvin 67/34/68/36/63 | Taft 65/46/68/46/64 | |
| Lamont 66/38/68/41/65 | Pixley 65/35/65/40/62 | Tulare 63/34/65/38/61 | |
| Woodlake 64/35/65/38/62 | Hanford 64/36/65/40/62 | Orosi 65/34/65/38/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Clearing 34/54 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 28/57 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 27/61 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/64 |
Friday
Mostly clear 30/66 |
Two Week Outlook: December 8 through December 14: This model shows a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies. This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog.
December: This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest. As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.
December, January, February: If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward. Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states. As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday night. Winds Sunday will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with possibly stronger gusts along the west side. Winds Sunday night and Monday will be out of the north to northwest along the west side at 15 to 30 MPH, decreasing Monday night with light winds Tuesday. Winds elsewhere will generally range from 5 to 15 MPH.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost: Temperatures at most frost stations this morning are in the 33 to 37 degree range. No doubt low lying pockets out there are at or below freezing. Similar conditions will prevail tonight. Temperatures Sunday morning will be above freezing due to increased cloud cover ahead of a dry cold front that will move down the valley late Saturday or early Sunday. The parent low will move through northern California then into Nevada, creating a northerly flow aloft, pumping in colder air above central California. As the low moves eastward, it will be followed by a strong surface high over the Great Basin, generating a strong off shore flow. The combination of the off shore flow and a colder air mass with a northerly flow aloft will mean we’ll see the coldest temperatures so far this frost season. One model places Porterville at 28 degrees Tuesday morning. This would lower frost pockets down to 23 to 26 degrees, if this does in fact occur.
This will be a string of frost nights as a shallow layer of cold, dry air will be trapped on the valley floor under the dome of high pressure. It appears Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will be the coldest with only slight moderation Thursday and Friday. eventually, daytime highs will climb above average, dragging low temperatures slightly upward as we head into next weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
AF |
Ivanhoe
AF |
Woodlake
AF |
| Strathmore
AF |
McFarland
AF |
Ducor
AF |
Tea Pot Dome
AF |
| Lindsay
AF |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
AF |
Madera
AF |
| Belridge
AF |
Delano
AF |
North Bakersfield
AF |
Orosi
AF |
| Orange Cove
AF |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
31 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
AF |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
AF |
| Arvin
AF |
Lamont
AF |
Plainview
AF |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
AF |
Holland Creek
AF |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
AF |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.
Relative Humidity Forecast: Hanford, 55%/100% Bakersfield, 40%/80%
Actual Humidity November 29, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 98%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 60%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 29, 2017: Stratford .57, Parlier .40, Blackwell .59, Lindcove .47, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .50, Porterville .41, Delano .NA., Madera Two .41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell 63, Lindcove, 63, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 60, Delano NA, Madera Two 60
Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.8 +5.6
Record Temperatures: 77/29. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days this Season: 289, -190 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since November 29, 2017 Fresno: .37 season. or -1.29. Month to Date: .28
Since November 29, 2017, Bakersfield: .03, or -.89, Month to Date: ..03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 84, Parlier, 86, Arvin, 51, Shafter, 110, Stratford, 96, Madera two, 209, Alpaugh, 104, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 72, Porterville, 193. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:53 am Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / M / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 60 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.91 36 4.05 161 2.51 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.98 48 2.99 147 2.04 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.03 52 2.32 117 1.99 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 16 2.20 108 2.03 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.37 22 2.05 121 1.70 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.37 25 1.00 67 1.50 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.03 3 0.62 66 0.94 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 20 0.09 11 0.82 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.75 38 2.56 129 1.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.25 15 2.65 161 1.65 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.09 5 2.58 134 1.93 13.95
Next Report: Friday, December 1/pm