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Forecast

December 2, 2017/report

December 2, 2017

Summary: Areas of dense fog have again developed from north of Delano to north of Merced.  Most of it is concentrated in eastern Kings County, western Tulare County, and parts of Fresno County.  High, thin clouds are also spreading into central California ahead of a cold low which is now centered off the Washington coast and is moving southeastward.  That low will move into Oregon tonight and will brush northern California Sunday.  Models indicate this system will move inland more slowly than anticipated so the cold front will move through central California sometime Sunday.  By Sunday night, the parent low will  be in the Great Basin and will quickly move to the east.  A strong surface high will then develop over the interior west, creating a strong off shore flow.  The winds aloft will become northerly which will set the stage for colder weather for central California.

 

The main concern is how far dew points fall beginning Sunday night and Monday.  The strong off shore flow is projected to continue through mid week, allowing dry air to move down the west side of the valley then infiltrate the remainder of the area.  This will set up a string of frost nights which is discussed below.

 

By midweek, a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure will cover California and off shore waters, building far to the north into the Yukon Territory of Canada.  This will create an effective blockade for any storms, preventing them from getting anywhere near the state for the next week to ten days, at least.  Even the two week model indicates this, so dry weather will last through at least the 12th of this month.

 

Forecast:   A mix of high clouds and sunshine today after the fog burns off.  Variable high clouds tonight through Sunday.  Becoming mostly clear Sunday night and Monday with the exception of portions of Kern County and southeastern Tulare County which will remain partly cloudy.  Becoming mostly clear Monday through Saturday with only patchy morning fog, at best.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 64/40/61/31/57 Reedley 65/42/63/32/58 Dinuba 63/40/63/31/56
Porterville 66/39/63/30/57 Lindsay 66/38/63/30/58 Delano 67/43/63/33/58
Bakersfield 68/44/64/36/59 Arvin 69/39/64/34/59 Taft 67/46/63/40/58
Lamont 69/44/63/37/60 Pixley 67/42/63/35/58 Tulare 63/40/62/30/57
Woodlake 64/41/62/31/57 Hanford 64/40/62/31/57 Orosi 65/39/62/31/56

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

28/58

Wednesday

Mostly clear

27/60

Thursday

Mostly clear

29/63

Friday

Mostly clear

29/63

Saturday

Mostly clear

30/66

Two Week Outlook:  December 9 through December 15:  This model shows a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies.  This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through tonight.  Winds later Sunday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH along the west side.  Winds will decrease Sunday night with generally light winds along the east side and in Kern County, but winds may continue out of the north at 10 to 20 MPH along the I-5 Corridor.  Winds Monday night and Tuesday will be generally less than 10 MPH

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing tonight and will likely be the last night for a while where I can say that.  A dry cold front will move through sometime Sunday.  Behind the front will be colder and, more importantly, drier air which will invade the area from the north.  By Monday, a strong surface high will be developing over the northern part of the Great Basin, creating a strong easterly flow over central and southern California.  This will aid falling dew points which will lead to a strong of front nights.  We will have to watch this pattern very closely as there is always a small possibility of a hard freeze in there, depending upon how low dew points ultimately settle in.

 

Lows Tuesday morning may drop into the 26 to 32 degree range with low lying frost pockets possibly down to 23 to 26 in unprotected locations.  Ditto that for Wednesday and Thursday.  Some minor modification will occur late next week as daytime highs rise to above average, possibly dragging overnight lows up a bit.  However, with dry air trapped on the valley floor, capped by high pressure, frost nights may continue all the way through the weekend.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

AF

Porterville

AF

Ivanhoe

AF

Woodlake

AF

Strathmore

AF

McFarland

AF

Ducor

AF

Tea Pot Dome

AF

Lindsay

AF

Exeter

AF

Famoso

AF

Madera

AF

Belridge

AF

Delano

AF

North Bakersfield

AF

Orosi

AF

Orange Cove

AF

Lindcove

AF

Lindcove hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

AF

Root Creek

32

Venice Hill

AF

Rosedale

AF

Jasmine

AF

Arvin

AF

Lamont

AF

Plainview

AF

Mettler

AF

Edison

AF

Maricopa

AF

Holland  Creek

AF

Tivy Valley

AF

Kite Road South

AF

Kite Road North

AF

 

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Bakersfield, low to mid 40s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 55%/95%  Bakersfield, 40%/80%

Actual Humidity November 30, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/47%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 50%, Bakersfield: Today 90% tomorrow 50%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days November 30, 2017: Stratford .55, Parlier NA, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .46, Arvin .52, Orange Cove .49, Porterville .40, Delano .NA., Madera Two .38.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 60, Blackwell 62, Lindcove, 62, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 59, Delano NA, Madera Two 60

 

Mean Temperatures for November Month So Far: 57.5 +5.5

Record Temperatures: 76/29. Average Temperatures: 59/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 289, -190 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since November 30, 2017  Fresno: .37 season. or -1.33.  Month to Date: .28

Since November 30, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or -.91,  Month to Date: ..03

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 96, Parlier, 93, Arvin, 61, Shafter, 124, Stratford, 108, Madera two, 227, Alpaugh, 127, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 80, Porterville, 207.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:54 am  Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:50

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  63 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  62 /  39 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  34 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  65 /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  65 /  42 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  63 /  36 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1553 /  66 /  36 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  65 /  38 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1555 /  63 /  43 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  62 /  39 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.91    35    4.05   158     2.57    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    47    2.99   143     2.09    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    51    2.32   115     2.01    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.32    16    2.20   107     2.05    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.37    21    2.05   118     1.74    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.37    24    1.00    66     1.52    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     3    0.62    65     0.96     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    19    0.09    11     0.84     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.75    37    2.56   126     2.03    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    15    2.65   157     1.69    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     5    2.58   130     1.98    13.95

 

Next Report: Saturday, December 2/pm