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Forecast

December 5, 2017/pm report

December 5, 2017

Summary: A relatively cold air mass is now at the lowest level of the atmosphere.  In other words, it’s trapped under a strong bubble of high pressure and its descending air.  A warm air inversion will be setting up as the week wears on, so this air mass will have no place to go.  The reason for this is that a strong upper high centered over the Pacific Northwest extends southward into southern California and northward into northern Canada.  The clockwise flow around this high has the winds aloft out of the north/northeast.  In the meantime, at the surface strong surface high pressure is over the Great Basin with its center over eastern Nevada and Utah.  This continues to generate strong Santa Ana winds in southern California and an off shore flow over central California.  In fact, satellite imagery is clearing showing smoke from the Ventura County fire blowing several hundred miles off shore.

 

This same basic pattern will continue to be in place for the remainder of the week, although surface pressure gradients will begin to weaken by Thursday.  Daytime highs will warm incrementally each day, eventually reaching the mid to upper 60s with even some lower 70s possible in Kern County by Friday.  meanwhile, dew points are quite low.  This will allow strong radiational cooling, thus frosty nights will continue with temperatures well below freezing, especially away from the urban areas.

 

The newest medium range models continue to depict a high governing the western United States with a cold trough east of the Rockies.  This gives literally no chance of rain for the next week and, more than likely, the next ten days as we continue to fall further behind in our rainfall totals for the year.

 

Forecast:  Clear skies through Saturday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Tuesday with patchy morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 26/60/27/63 Reedley 27/61/28/64 Dinuba 25/61/27/63
Porterville 27/63/28/64 Lindsay 26/62/27/64 Delano 28/63/29/65
Bakersfield 32/65/34/67 Arvin 25/65/27/68 Taft 33/65/35/68
Lamont 29/66/30/68 Pixley 27/62/28/65 Tulare 25/61/27/63
Woodlake 27/61/27/64 Hanford 27/62/29/65 Orosi 26/63/27/64

 

Winds: Winds will be less than10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather for at least the next seven to ten days.

 

Frost Information:  The main challenge tonight will be the amount of mixing that occurs due to a strong off shore flow…or the lack thereof.  Models this afternoon are very similar to yesterday’s.  One model places Porterville at 29 while another shows 28 degrees.  Most are in that same general range.

 

Dew points, on average, are down 3 to 4 degrees from 24 hours ago, generally running in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.  this means the air mass is a little drier than it was 24 hours ago, giving a greater chance of being slightly colder.

 

Since modeling didn’t do too well last night, I don’t completely trust them tonight.  Nevertheless, the coldest river bottom locations will drop down to 23 to 25 in unprotected locations while most flat terrain will range from 26 to 30 with hillsides in the low to mid 30s.

 

The inversion tonight should be a bit stronger, ranging 3 to 6 degrees warmer at 34 feet than at ground level.

 

Moderation will be slight Thursday morning, but as daytime highs start to reach into the mid to upper 60s at the end of the week, it will have a tendency to drag up overnight lows a little.

 

Over the weekend and into next week, we should be in the 29 to 34 degree range with most nights at least seeing only the colder locations below freezing.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

26

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

27

Strathmore

27

McFarland

26

Ducor

25

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

26

Exeter

26

Famoso

28

Madera

26

Belridge

27

Delano

28

North Bakersfield

28

Orosi

26

Orange Cove

27

Lindcove

26

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

23

Root Creek

25

Venice Hill

26

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

28

Arvin

25

Lamont

29

Plainview

27

Mettler

33

Edison

28

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

29

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

 

Next Report: Wednesday morning/December 6