December 5, 2017
Summary: A relatively cold air mass is now at the lowest level of the atmosphere. In other words, it’s trapped under a strong bubble of high pressure and its descending air. A warm air inversion will be setting up as the week wears on, so this air mass will have no place to go. The reason for this is that a strong upper high centered over the Pacific Northwest extends southward into southern California and northward into northern Canada. The clockwise flow around this high has the winds aloft out of the north/northeast. In the meantime, at the surface strong surface high pressure is over the Great Basin with its center over eastern Nevada and Utah. This continues to generate strong Santa Ana winds in southern California and an off shore flow over central California. In fact, satellite imagery is clearing showing smoke from the Ventura County fire blowing several hundred miles off shore.
This same basic pattern will continue to be in place for the remainder of the week, although surface pressure gradients will begin to weaken by Thursday. Daytime highs will warm incrementally each day, eventually reaching the mid to upper 60s with even some lower 70s possible in Kern County by Friday. meanwhile, dew points are quite low. This will allow strong radiational cooling, thus frosty nights will continue with temperatures well below freezing, especially away from the urban areas.
The newest medium range models continue to depict a high governing the western United States with a cold trough east of the Rockies. This gives literally no chance of rain for the next week and, more than likely, the next ten days as we continue to fall further behind in our rainfall totals for the year.
Forecast: Clear skies through Saturday. Mostly clear skies will continue Saturday night through Tuesday with patchy morning fog.
Short Term:
Madera 26/60/27/63 | Reedley 27/61/28/64 | Dinuba 25/61/27/63 | |
Porterville 27/63/28/64 | Lindsay 26/62/27/64 | Delano 28/63/29/65 | |
Bakersfield 32/65/34/67 | Arvin 25/65/27/68 | Taft 33/65/35/68 | |
Lamont 29/66/30/68 | Pixley 27/62/28/65 | Tulare 25/61/27/63 | |
Woodlake 27/61/27/64 | Hanford 27/62/29/65 | Orosi 26/63/27/64 |
Winds: Winds will be less than10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday.
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost Information: The main challenge tonight will be the amount of mixing that occurs due to a strong off shore flow…or the lack thereof. Models this afternoon are very similar to yesterday’s. One model places Porterville at 29 while another shows 28 degrees. Most are in that same general range.
Dew points, on average, are down 3 to 4 degrees from 24 hours ago, generally running in the upper 20s to the mid 30s. this means the air mass is a little drier than it was 24 hours ago, giving a greater chance of being slightly colder.
Since modeling didn’t do too well last night, I don’t completely trust them tonight. Nevertheless, the coldest river bottom locations will drop down to 23 to 25 in unprotected locations while most flat terrain will range from 26 to 30 with hillsides in the low to mid 30s.
The inversion tonight should be a bit stronger, ranging 3 to 6 degrees warmer at 34 feet than at ground level.
Moderation will be slight Thursday morning, but as daytime highs start to reach into the mid to upper 60s at the end of the week, it will have a tendency to drag up overnight lows a little.
Over the weekend and into next week, we should be in the 29 to 34 degree range with most nights at least seeing only the colder locations below freezing.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
27 |
Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
25 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
26 |
Belridge
27 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
26 |
Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
26 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
Arvin
25 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
27 |
Mettler
33 |
Edison
28 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
Next Report: Wednesday morning/December 6