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Forecast

December 9, 2017/report

December 9, 2017

Summary: Same ol’, same ol’ as strong upper level high pressure stays stuck along the west coast, ridging into western Canada.  The surface high over the Great Basin is strengthening, meaning the off shore flow will increase, as well.  This doesn’t bode well for the fires in southern California.  Some of this dry air will leach into Kern County, lowering dew points even more this weekend.  High clouds have managed to penetrate the high and have moved over the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley this morning.  Even so, temperatures throughout the citrus belt are ranging from 26 to 32 at most locations.  There are high clouds off shore, however, they’re too thin to really make much difference in the radiational cooling process.

 

Next week,  models show the upper high moving further off shore which will change the winds aloft from east to north.  Either way, the valley is locked into a pattern where a shallow layer of dry air will remain.

 

Medium range models still indicate the high will remain over the west with pleasant afternoons and chilly nights.  For now, there’s no rain in sight.

 

Forecast:  Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Tuesday.  Mostly clear skies will continue Tuesday night through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 66/29/66/30/67 Reedley 65/28/67/30/67 Dinuba 65/28/67/29/67
Porterville 66/30/67/31/67 Lindsay 66/28/67/29/67 Delano 67/31/67/32/67
Bakersfield 69/37/70/37/70 Arvin 70/35/71/35/70 Taft 68/37/71/38/69
Lamont 69/34/71/35/70 Pixley 67/29/67/30/67 Tulare 65/29/67/29/67
Woodlake 66/29/67/30/67 Hanford 67/31/67/33/68 Orosi 66/28/67/29/66

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

Mostly clear

29/66

Wednesday

Mostly clear

30/65

Thursday

Mostly clear

31/67

Friday

Mostly clear

32/68

Saturday

Mostly clear

33/67

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 15 through December 21:  This model continues to show a big ridge over the west and a big cold trough east of the Rockies.  This pattern is very unfavorable for rain, but it is favorable for above average temperatures and areas of night and morning fog along with sub-freezing overnight lows.

 

December:  This model is indicating a better than even chance of above average temperatures for central and southern California all the way to the southeast with near to below average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest.  As far as precipitation is concerned, this model does show better than average precip over Washington and Oregon and near average rainfall over central and northern California.

 

December, January, February:  If this model is to be believed, winter this year will experience somewhat above average temperatures from California, stretching eastward and southward.  Below average temperatures would prevail from the northern Rockies through the Plains states.  As far as California is concerned, precipitation would be near to marginally below average with temperatures marginally above average, but take all this with a grain of salt.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Wednesday.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost:  There was a wide variety of overnight lows last night.  as of 6:00am, readings ranged from 26 to 36.  High, thin clouds managed to penetrate into the valley overnight, especially along the west side.  That may be partially why temperatures were of such a wide variety.  Lows tonight will range from 27 to 34 as slight modification is anticipated.  The high clouds may not be a factor in tonight’s outcome.  For now, I’m anticipating these clouds will be too high and too thin to really make much of a difference.

 

A cut off low will develop Monday and Tuesday off the northern Baja, California coast which could spread some more cloud cover over the valley.  The placement of this low is currently unclear, but at the anticipated center of the low just off the northern Baja coast, it would put central California along its northern rim.  No precipitation is expected from this feature, but dense cloud cover would go a long way in moving temperatures in the right direction.

 

Meanwhile, that shallow layer of dry air will remain stuck in place with the coldest locations tonight ranging from 26 to 28 and  most other locations from 28 to 34.  Slight modification is expected Monday morning.  After that, outcomes will be generally determined by the possible cloud cover.  Assuming skies remain clear, temperatures would drop to at least 28 to 32 in the colder locations with a few sneaking in above freezing.

 

The inversion tonight will again be decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 5 to 8 degrees warmer.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

29

McFarland

27

Ducor

28

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

27

Exeter

28

Famoso

30

Madera

30

Belridge

29

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

32

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

AF

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

29

Arvin

34

Lamont

33

Plainview

28

Mettler

AF

Edison

30

Maricopa

34

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

 

AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Bakersfield, upper 20s to the lower 30s.

Relative Humidity Forecast:  Hanford, 40%/90%  Bakersfield, 25%/65%

Actual Humidity December 7, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 93%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 80% tomorrow 80%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 80%.

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 7, 2017: Stratford .50, Parlier .38, Blackwell, .49 Lindcove .36, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .34, Delano .NA., Madera Two .36.  Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 52, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 52, Porterville 53, Delano NA, Madera Two 54

 

Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 47.4 +1.4

Record Temperatures: 77/25. Average Temperatures: 56/35

Heating Degree Days this Season: 426, -204 Courtesy of the NWS

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since December 7, 2017  Fresno: .37 season. or -1.64.  Month to Date: T

Since December 7, 2017,  Bakersfield:  .03, or -1.10,  Month to Date: ..00

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 179, Parlier, 201, Arvin, 144, Shafter, 226, Stratford, 200, Madera two, 337, Alpaugh, 209, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 167, Porterville, 316.  Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 7:00 am  Sunset: 4:43 pm. Hours of Daylight:  9:44

 

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  65 /  34 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  66 /  34 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  69 /  30 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /   M /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  67 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  67 /  32 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1554 /  71 /  33 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  69 /  31 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1556 /  64 /  44 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  62 /  33 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                                                       Season     %        Last y.   %           Ave.       Annual Ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    0.91    31    4.09   139     2.94    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    0.98    40    3.00   124     2.42    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.03    47    2.32   105     2.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.32    14    2.21    97     2.28    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.37    18    2.05   102     2.01    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.37    22    1.00    60     1.66    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.03     3    0.62    55     1.13     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.16    17    0.09     9     0.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.75    32    2.56   108     2.36    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.25    13    2.65   134     1.98    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.09     4    2.58   111     2.32    13.95

 

Next Report: Saturday, December 9/pm