December 14, 2017
Summary: Visibilities are running on the average of 3 miles up and down the valley this afternoon which is a good indication that the strong warm air inversion continues to be locked in. there are some minor changes in the wind which may actually move temperatures above freezing Saturday morning, at least at most locations, as a weak trough of low pressure barrels through. Don’t expect any precipitation, but with some luck there will be plenty of cloud cover. This trough will dig into southern California and northern Baja Saturday night and Sunday, creating a north/northeast flow aloft behind the trough. It may even break up the inversion for potentially better visibilities. However, models are continuing to indicate temperatures aloft will take a considerable drop and may mix down to the valley floor for more cold nights. This would start Sunday but would be more likely Monday through Thursday.
Overall, the same pattern will continue. Strong high pressure centered several hundred miles west of San Francisco keeping a north to northeast flow aloft going for what appears to be all of next week. It still looks like a radical change may begin about the 22 or 23 as upper level high pressure builds into western Canada, possibly as far north as the Arctic Circle. Models also show a strong low forming over Arizona and possibly southern California. This is the perfect recipe for a strong northeast flow aloft and a very strong off shore flow. Considering the potential origins of this air mass, a freeze is possible a few days before Christmas, lasting several days. This certainly could be a low to mid 20s affair and possibly colder. I’m always hesitant to mention this because much could change between now and then, but a trend is developing, making this more worrisome.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight and Friday. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Saturday morning. Becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon and on through Thursday of next week with cold nights continuing.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/66/38/62 | Reedley 27/65/38/61 | Dinuba 27/65/37/61 | |
| Porterville 28/67/39/62 | Lindsay 27/66/38/63 | Delano 29/68/39/61 | |
| Bakersfield 34/71/40/64 | Arvin 29/70/39/63 | Taft 41/71/43/62 | |
| Lamont 30/68/40/62 | Pixley 27/67/39/63 | Tulare 27/66/37/61 | |
| Woodlake 28/66/39/62 | Hanford 28/67/38/61 | Orosi 26/65/38/62 | |
Winds: Winds will be less than10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain: Expect dry weather for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost Information: The freezing level this afternoon stands at 14,300 feet which is very high for this time of year. The inversion remains locked in with temperatures and dew points roughly the same as they’ve been for several days. It will be another cold night with coldest locations down to 25 to 26 or so with most flatland terrain between 27 and 30. In Kern County, readings will range from the upper 20s in the colder spots to low to mid 30s elsewhere.
The inversion tonight will again be very good with temperatures at 34 feet being 5 to 9 degrees warmer. With some luck, most if not all locations may very well be above freezing Saturday morning as a fast moving but dry trough of low pressure moves through. Models do indicate there will be plenty of cloud cover with this system, and hopefully that’ll do the trick.
Also, it is possible the inversion may break, but unfortunately colder air will be moving in aloft which could mix down to the valley floor, creating some cold nights coming up Monday through Thursday of next week.
I’m still concerned about the period of time before Christmas, especially the 22 and 23. Models are trending towards an Arctic outbreak in the western U.S. which may very well affect California. Upper level high pressure will jut northward into northern Canada while a low center potentially develops over Arizona and southern California. On paper, this is a freeze pattern which could be a dangerous one. I’m still hoping the bulk of the cold air moves in east of the Sierra Nevada, but that’s by no means guaranteed. We will keep you posted.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
27 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
27 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
Next Report: Friday morning, December 15