December 22, 2017
Summary: It was a cold one last night. many locations as of 6:00am were in the mid 20s and no doubt there were unprotected locations out there in low lying areas that hit 21 to 22 or so. More in the frost discussion below.
Upper level high pressure is off shore with high clouds moving up and over the high and into the Pacific Northwest. From there, they dive down into northern California and, to a lesser extent, central California. This will be a wild card in tonight’s forecast as it is possible some cloud cover could affect overnight low temperatures. The high will build inland through Christmas Eve with a west/northwest flow aloft cutting off the supply of modified Arctic air.
On Christmas Day, a weak and dry trough of low pressure will move through but it’s not expected to have much impact on temperatures other than to bring some cloud cover which could affect temps Christmas morning.
A warm air inversion is definitely building above the valley floor. The freezing level is all the way up to 11, 300 feet now with many higher mountain locations being several degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
The outlook after Christmas is grim as far as any potential for precipitation is concerned. Models continue to show a dry ridge of upper level high pressure over and along the west coast which will literally form a blockade against weather systems moving through.
Daytime temperatures will warm to above average values, generally ranging in the low to mid 60s.
Forecast: Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy through Christmas Eve. Partly cloudy Christmas Day and Christmas night. mostly clear Tuesday through Friday with patchy late night and early morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/29/59/28/61 | Reedley 55/28/58/29/60 | Dinuba 56/27/61/29/62 | |
| Porterville 56/29/60/28/61 | Lindsay 56/27/59/28/62 | Delano 56/29/60/29/63 | |
| Bakersfield 58/33/62/34/65 | Arvin 60/29/62/30/65 | Taft 59/33/62/36/66 | |
| Lamont 59/28/62/30/64 | Pixley 57/28/60/29/61 | Tulare 55/27/60/28/61 | |
| Woodlake 56/28/60/29/62 | Hanford 56/28/59/29/62 | Orosi 55/27/59/28/62 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Christmas Day
Partly cloudy 30/61 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 29/62 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 31/64 |
Friday
Mostly clear 31/64 |
Two Week Outlook: December 28 through January 3: This model indicates a ridge of upper level high pressure will be off shore and over the western states with daytime temperatures reaching above average values. Overnight lows may still chill to below average. The chance of precipitation during this period appears quite low.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Christmas Day.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost: The following are some low temperatures as of 6:00am: Lemoore 23, Strathmore 24, Orange Cove/west Lindsay/east Lindsay/Famoso 25. Most other locations were between 26 and 29. With standard, generally protected locations in the mid 20s, no doubt there were unprotected low spots out there down to 21 to 22. Fortunately, at most locations readings did not fall to critical levels, although some locations may drop another degree or two before sunrise.
The wild card for Saturday morning is the possibility of cloud cover. Currently, there’s a big upper high just off shore with abundant cloud cover moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Some of these clouds have managed to drop down into central California. Whether or not they remain tonight and are thick enough to affect potential overnight lows is somewhat of a roll of the dice.
For this forecast, we’ll put coldest unprotected locations down to 25 to 27 with most other locations between 27and 32. Hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will tighten up with temperatures at 34 feet being generally 4 to 7 degrees warmer. We will study cloud behavior during the course of the day and will try to be more definitive with tonight’s forecast as a clear sky would put coldest locations back into the mid 20s. Hopefully, though, a bit of modification will occur.
Models are showing occasional periods of partly cloudy skies Saturday through Christmas Eve. On Christmas Day, a weak dry trough of low pressure will quickly move through central California. As usual, there will be no precipitation. But, it may provide cloud cover for Christmas Day, hopefully providing a bit of a Christmas present.
Beyond Christmas, a ridge of dry high pressure will remain over and along the coast for above average daytime temps with clear nights down into the 28 to 32 degree range.. Fortunately, longer term there doesn’t appear to be a pattern which would result in another modified Arctic air invasion. With this in mind, this morning may be the coldest we’ll see for some time.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
34 |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
27 |
Plainview
27 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the mid 30s. Kern, upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Humidity, Visalia, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 30%/70%
Actual Humidity December 20, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 90%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 20, 2017: Stratford .44, Parlier .36, Blackwell, .51 Lindcove .38, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .43, Porterville .34, Delano .NA., Madera Two .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 49, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 54, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 49, Delano NA, Madera Two 51
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.9 +2.0
Record Temperatures: 71/23. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 662, -232 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.28. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.47, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 349, Parlier, 375, Arvin, 310, Shafter, 427, Stratford, 379, Madera two, 518, Alpaugh, NA, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 353, Porterville, 511. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:08 am Sunset: 4:47 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:38
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 52 / 27 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 51 / 32 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 51 / 26 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 51 / 23 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 53 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 51 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 52 / 32 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 52 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 50 / 28 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 24 5.46 139 3.94 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 31 4.30 129 3.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 39 3.72 130 2.86 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 13 3.62 119 3.04 12.02
FRESNO T 0.41 15 4.08 147 2.78 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 18 2.00 86 2.33 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 1.02 65 1.58 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 13 0.15 12 1.27 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 24 3.82 119 3.21 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 9 3.40 118 2.88 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 4 4.02 124 3.24 13.95
MERCED 0.00 1.03 39 3.72 142 2.62 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.32 11 3.62 130 2.79 12.02
Next Report: Thursday, December 21/pm