Summary: Skies are mostly clear over the southern 2/3 of the valley this afternoon with mid and high-level clouds from Fresno County northward. These clouds continue to move over the top of strong high pressure off shore then slide southeastward along the eastern rim of the high. They eventually dissipate over the Desert Southwest. This will again make somewhat of a tricky forecast for overnight low temperatures. Cloud cover would go a long way in keeping temperatures in the low to mid 30s.
Analyzing satellite imagery, we find the trajectory of the bulk of the cloud cover will brush Fresno County and points northward with mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy skies south of Fresno County. The ramifications of all this will be discussed in the frost section.
A dry cold front will move down the valley Christmas Eve or Christmas Eve night. This may spread some cloud cover over the region to possibly hold temperatures up marginally Christmas morning. But again, the timing of this front and the timing of the exiting cloud cover will largely determine the outcome for Christmas morning.
Once we get beyond Christmas Day, we will see relatively enjoyable weather for this time of year as upper level high pressure covers the eastern Pacific Ocean and much of the western U.S. while a cold trough of low pressure remains anchored east of the Rockies. This will allow daytime temperatures to move into the low to mid 60s with overnight lows potentially down to 26 in the cold spots to the 30s in the hillside locations and locally elsewhere.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Christmas Day. Mostly clear Monday night and on through next Saturday with occasional periods of high clouds possible.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/61/29/61 | Reedley 28/62/29/62 | Dinuba 28/61/29/62 | |
| Porterville 29/63/29/63 | Lindsay 28/62/28/61 | Delano 29/63/30/63 | |
| Bakersfield 34/64/35/63 | Arvin 30/65/31/64 | Taft 39/64/40/64 | |
| Lamont 28/65/29/65 | Pixley 28/63/29/63 | Tulare 27/61/28/61 | |
| Woodlake 28/62/29/62 | Hanford 29/61/30/62 | Orosi 29/62/29/61 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost Information: Temperatures this afternoon north of Kern County are running 3 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Bakersfield is reporting a temperature that’s five degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Dew points are up slightly and are generally in the low to mid 30s all the way up and down the line.
The wild card tonight will again be possible periods of high and maybe even mid level clouds streaming in from the northwest. The bulk of the cloud cover this afternoon is from roughly Fresno County northward, but this batch of cloud cover will enter the southern Sierra Nevada, leaving the valley relatively clear. There are more high clouds off shore which will be moving overhead during the course of the night. It is conceivable that low to mid 30s may occur at most locations, but that’s only if skies see a good deal of cloud cover that’s dense enough to slow the radiational cooling process.
The other scenario is that the bulk of the high clouds either pass to our north or are too thin to really matter. If this plays out, coldest locations could dip down into the 26 to 27 degree range with most other locations ranging from 28 to 31. Currently, this is the scenario I’m leaning towards for tonight.
The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 4 to 8 degrees warmer.
Looking ahead to Christmas morning, there will be a weak, dry cold front moving through the valley possibly on Christmas Eve afternoon or perhaps that night. If the cloud cover from this system remains over central California long enough, upper 20s to the mid 30s will be possible. However, much of the cloud cover associated with this system may race to the southeast, leaving skies relatively clear.
After Christmas, models continue to show that persistent ridge off shore with a generally west to northwest flow over California. This is a very stable pattern which will allow daytime highs to warm into the low to mid 60s with overnight lows probably ranging in the upper 20s to the low to mid 30s. for now, there is no pattern out there which would allow modified Arctic air to move into California, so relatively safe conditions will prevail through at least the third or fourth of January.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
Next Report: Christmas Eve morning