Summary: Considerable amounts of high, mainly thin, clouds are streaming in, overrunning a strong ridge of upper level high pressure located off shore. Even with the high clouds, temperatures in the coldest locations dipped into the upper 20s last night with widespread lower 30s.
The off shore ridge will remain along the west coast through Sunday. A cold low will drop into the interior west Christmas Eve night with the western flank of this trough moving rapidly through central California with variable amounts of cloud cover, but little else. The coldest air with this system will slide southward east of the Sierra Nevada, so no reinforcing shot of cold air is expected.
There is a nice warm air inversion above the valley floor. For example, Grapevine peak at an elevation of 5,000 feet was close to 50 degrees with upper 20s and lower 30s on the valley floor.
A westerly flow will be apparent through Christmas day with continued periods of variable high clouds spilling over the top of the high and into California. There will be gaps in these high clouds which makes forecasting overnight lows a bit more difficult. But no critical situation is on the horizon. In fact, medium range models going out through January 4th continue to show the blocking ridge over and along the west coast for dry weather with above average daytime temperatures but a continuation of chilly overnight lows.
Forecast: Periods of variable high clouds at times, otherwise it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Christmas Day. Mostly clear with occasional high clouds Monday night and on through Saturday of next week.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/30/60/29/63 | Reedley 58/29/59/30/62 | Dinuba 58/28/59/29/61 | |
| Porterville 60/29/61/29/63 | Lindsay 59/28/60/29/62 | Delano 60/30/61/31/63 | |
| Bakersfield 60/34/63/36/63 | Arvin 61/30/63/31/64 | Taft 60/38/63/39/63 | |
| Lamont 60/30/63/30/63 | Pixley 60/29/62/29/62 | Tulare 58/28/59/29/62 | |
| Woodlake 59/29/60/29/61 | Hanford 58/30/60/30/62 | Orosi 58/28/59/29/61 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 30/61 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 29/62 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/62 |
Friday
Mostly clear 31/64 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 30/64 |
Two Week Outlook: December 28 through January 3: This model indicates a ridge of upper level high pressure will be off shore and over the western states with daytime temperatures reaching above average values. Overnight lows may still chill to below average. The chance of precipitation during this period appears quite low.
January: Overall during January this season, temperatures should range somewhat above average. This model also shows equal chances of near average precipitation over the northern half of the state but below average precip over the southern half of California. We remain between these two It forecasts, so hopefully precipitation will be near seasonal levels.
January, February, March: This model is not hopeful for above average precipitation, or even average precipitation. Overall, upper level high pressure is projected to be the most dominant feature for the next three months, resulting in average temperatures.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday.
Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next seven to ten days.
Frost: Temperatures this morning are anywhere from 4 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Even so, despite the high clouds, coldest locations dipped into the upper 20s. As of 6:00am, west Porterville was at 29, as was Maricopa and Strathmore. This means the coldest low spots may bottom out at 26 to 27.
For tonight, there will be a mix of high clouds and periods of clear skies. For now, it appears coldest locations will dip down into the upper 20s with most locations in the upper 20s to the lower 30s. This forecast will be highly dependent on the potential density of cloud cover. As of now, I would anticipate coldest locations will be down to 26 to 27, assuming the high clouds remain thin. If the clouds are dense enough, we could see a low to mid 30s type of night. For now, though, I’ll lean low.
The inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
Looking ahead to Christmas Eve and Christmas morning, again, the high cloud factor may come into the play with the potential for 27 to 31 degree range being possible.
Christmas eve night, just about the time Santa is doing his thing, a weak trough of low pressure will move through. This could provide enough cloud cover for a time early Christmas morning a bit milder. Fortunately, there is not a reinforcing shot of cold air behind this system.
Longer term for Tuesday and beyond, mostly clear skies will prevail with occasional periods of high clouds with relatively dry air trapped on the valley floor. Add to this the longest nights of the year and any location could chill down to 26 to 32 with hillsides remaining above freezing.
The long range outlook does not indicate a further invasion of modified Arctic air on the horizon, so for now it appears generally safe conditions will prevail.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove hillside
AF |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the mid 30s. Kern, upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Humidity, Visalia, 40%/95% Bakersfield, 30%/70%
Actual Humidity December 21, 2017: Delano, NA, Porterville, 99%/48%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today 70% tomorrow 70%, Bakersfield: Today 80% tomorrow 70%.
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days December 21, 2017: Stratford .44, Parlier .36, Blackwell, .50 Lindcove .34, Arvin .47, Orange Cove .43, Porterville .34, Delano .NA., Madera Two .34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 48, Parlier 49, Blackwell 52, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 49, Delano NA, Madera Two 51
Mean Temperatures for December. Month So Far: 46.5 +1.6
Record Temperatures: 70/19. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days this Season: 688, -231 Courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since October 1, 2017 Fresno: .41 season. or -2.37. Month to Date: .04
Since October 1, 2017, Bakersfield: .07, or -1.51, Month to Date: .04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling ours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 366, Parlier, 393, Arvin, 334, Shafter, 445, Stratford, 397, Madera two, 537, Alpaugh, NA, Delano, NA, Lindcove, 370, Porterville, 529. Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 4:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 9:38
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 27 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 29 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 25 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 54 / 20 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 27 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 58 / 24 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 27 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 56 / 33 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 29 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Season % Last y. % Ave. Annual Ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.96 24 5.46 136 4.02 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.03 30 4.30 126 3.40 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.11 38 3.72 127 2.92 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.41 13 3.62 116 3.11 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.41 14 4.08 143 2.85 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.41 17 2.00 84 2.39 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.07 4 1.02 63 1.62 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.16 12 0.15 12 1.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.78 24 3.82 116 3.28 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.27 9 3.40 115 2.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.12 4 4.02 121 3.32 13.95
Next Report: Saturday, December 23/pm